BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 7, 7:01 PM EDT
250
FXUS61 KBOX 072301
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
701 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cancelled the flood watch for CT and lowered
rainfall totals across Connecticut and Central Massachusetts to 1 to
2 inches. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain continues through this evening, shifting offshore
overnight. Minor ponding in poor drainage areas possible. Dry
conditions Wednesday with seasonable temperatures.
- Warm, humid weather returns late in the week. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible both days but better
chances looking to be on Friday.
- Drier, seasonably cool and less humid weather for the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain continues through this evening, shifting
offshore overnight. Minor ponding in poor drainage areas possible.
Dry conditions Wednesday with seasonable temperatures.
Surface low pressure slowly shifts offshore tonight bring the
bulk of the rain with it. Rain continues for the remainder of
the afternoon and into the evening with a brief pocket or two of
heavier rain rates possible. Rain slowly shifts eastward
tonight tapering off from west to east. We have had plenty of
beneficial rainfall over the last 36 hours or so with 1"+ in
many areas and 4"+ in isolated areas on the Cape/Islands. There
have been reports of ponding water on roads and minor flooding
in poor drainage urban areas, so expect that to be possible
through this evening in spots. Overall not expecting a
widespread flash flood threat with perhaps another few tenths to
a half inch through the overnight. Any remaining showers exit
the outer Cape and Islands before sunrise.
High pressure settles in for Wednesday resulting in a dry day
with seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. Winds
will be light out of the N/NW with sea breezes possible along
the east coast.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm, humid weather returns late in the week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible both days but
better chances looking to be on Friday.
After a couple of soggy and seasonably cooler days to begin the
workweek, by Thursday and Friday we turn warmer, humid and more
unsettled again. Amid a broader WSW flow aloft, a weak disturbance
aloft in that flow in vicinity of the lower Ohio Valley could bring
some risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly to
southwestern/southern portions of Southern New England later
Thursday into Thursday night. Still think the better potential for
storms is closer to the mid-Atlantic/north-central Appalachians
closer to the disturbance aloft, so PoPs on Thursday are on the low
side. Friday looks to offer a better potential for thunderstorms as
a sagging cold frontal boundary from northern New England interacts
with a warm and rather sticky (e.g dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid
70s) airmass. Neither day harbors much in the way of severe weather
potential with poor middle-tropospheric lapse rates leading to tall-
skinny CAPE profiles and deep layer shear in the 30 kt range, and
this is reflected by low to nil severe weather probs per NSSL/CSU
severe weather machine learning guidance. Will point out the 12z
deterministic GFS seems an outlier compared to multi-model consensus
and its own ensemble, which offers a pretty coherent sfc low
trekking through Southern New England on Friday and would bring
another soaking rain.
Warm and humid weather prevails both days with highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s, supporting heat indices in the mid 90s to mid/upper
90s, more likely falling short of heat headlines.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier, seasonably cool and less humid weather for the
weekend.
For the weekend the 500 mb pattern transitions to one of cyclonic
flow/troughing in the mean, which favors cooler temperatures (low to
mid 80s) and lower humidity levels. Weekend appears favorable for
outdoor plans with nice summer weather. We'll be on the western
periphery of a pretty impressive upper level ridge of nearly 600 dm
building over the northern/central Plains and upper Midwest. We
could have to keep an eye on possible storminess pivoting around the
ridge but it looks as though the weekend ends up drier than not.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00Z TAF Update:
Tonight: High confidence in trends but lower on timing.
IFR-LIFR ceilings prevail for areas from ORH south and east,
with MVFR prevailing at BDL. Band of moderate to heavy rain near
ORH to BED/BOS will sag southward through 03z to the Cape and
Islands with IFR-visby rain. Gradual improvement in visbys with
rain diminishing from west to east through 04z, but could linger
until 07-08z for the eastern MA coast. Categories also slowly
improve to VFR levels overnight for the interior, but still stay
in the MVFR-IFR range for BOS, PVD and the Cape airports. NE
winds 8-16 kt with gusts 25-30 kt, highest winds/gusts
coastal/eastern MA. Winds thru overnight turn to N with a
decrease in speed to around 6-12 kt.
Wednesday: High confidence in trends but moderate on timing.
Lingering sub-VFR ceilings and areas BR for BOS, PVD and the
lift through 14z, and around 16z on the Cape. VFR thereafter.
Northerly winds around 5 kt, but possible late-day seabreeze at
BOS, after 19z if it develops.
Wednesday night...High confidence.
VFR. SW winds 5-10 kts.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. NE gusts to 30 kt
with MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visbys in moderate to heavy rain
thru 02z. Visbys improve with winds backing to northerly with
lighter speeds thru rest of overnight; ceilings will be slowly
lifting but not likely to go full VFR until mid- morning Wed.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday through Sunday/...
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday Night: VFR.
Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday through Sunday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday Night...High confidence.
Winds decrease across the inner waters allowing SCAs to drop off
this evening. In the coastal waters, NE winds with gusts around
25 kts. Seas build to 5 ft tonight with areas of 6 ft possible
in the outer waters. Winds decrease Wednesday morning; however,
SCAs may need to be extended through Wednesday night for outer
waters due to 5 ft seas.
Outlook /Wednesday through Sunday/...
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Patchy fog.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
up to 5 ft.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
ANZ231>235-237-251-256.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ250-254-
255.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Loconto/Mensch
AVIATION...Loconto/BW
MARINE...Loconto/Mensch
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 7, 7:01 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202607072301-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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