BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 6, 3:28 PM EDT
364
FXUS61 KBOX 061928
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
328 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periods of heavy rain and a few embedded t-storms today into
Tuesday across parts of CT, RI, and SE MA. Rain continues to
overspread the region through tonight, but will be lighter
towards the NH border.
- Mainly dry mid-week as higher temperatures and humidity
return. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday,
possibly lingering into Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of heavy rain and a few embedded t-storms
today into Tuesday across parts of CT, RI, and SE MA. Rain continues
to overspread the region through tonight, but will be lighter
towards the NH border.
Rain to the south of the region is slowly moving northward towards
southern New England, picking up a bit towards the south coast of
CT. Drier air remains settled over much of Massachusetts north of
the RI and CT borders, limiting the spread of rain there. High
pressure over northern New England nosing down into the region is
also a key factor here. Rain is not expected to really pick up until
this evening into tonight for parts of CT, SE MA, and RI when the
low to the south of Long Island is expected to continue pushing
north. Up towards northern MA, rain may not start until around
midnight.
With the approaching low, a boundary will also push northward that
will clash with high pressure, a PWAT plume with values up to (and
even exceeding) 2.0", and a LLJ with winds around 30 kt at 925 mb.
This would be a main driver for widespread heavy rainfall along the
boundary, which guidance has still struggled to find a more concrete
solution to. Rainfall totals between 1-3" are still expected over
much of southern New England, with lighter totals expected closer to
the NH border. Locally higher totals between 4-6" remain a
possibility over parts of CT, RI, and SE MA. Even with the
spread in guidance regarding where these totals may be, a number
of models still key in on those areas as having the highest
risk for these totals. For these reasons, a Flood Watch remains
in effect through tomorrow afternoon for our counties in
northern CT into RI and SE MA to the Cape.
Rainy conditions are expected to continue through much of
Tuesday -- mainly in eastern MA and RI -- as the low pressure
continues northeastward and its associated shortwave moves east
from the Great Lakes. The low passes the region Tuesday night
with the upper level shortwave moving over Maine, and high
pressure to the north continues spreading southward over
southern New England as it departs. Showers may persist into
Tuesday night, but these are not expected to be nearly as
impactful as today & tonight's rainfall.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry mid-week as higher temperatures and
humidity return. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday,
possibly lingering into Saturday.
A mid-level ridge and subsequent surface low will start to build
over the mid-Atlantic and New England regions Wednesday, bringing a
spell of mainly dry weather through most of Thursday. 925mb
temperatures rising to near 20C and plenty of sunshine will allow
for surface temperatures to begin to creep up above seasonable
norms... likely near 90 across most of southern New England
Wednesday and Thursday. Another shortwave trough and cold front
pushing through sometime Thursday may bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms Friday. Depending on the timing of the FROPA, showers
could linger into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z TAF Update...
No major changes in trends.
Through Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
VFR conditions early this morning will gradually deteriorate to MVFR
levels today into tonight from southwest to northeast with brief
bouts of IFR conditions possible too. This will be associated with
periods of rain, which may fall heavy at times across parts of
CT/RI/SE MA. An embedded t-storm or two is possible in this same
area as well. The process of lower cigs/vsbys and steady rain
will be slowest to arrive across northeast MA where it may take
until this evening or even later for MVFR conditions to
develop. Periods of rain will continue into Tue especially
across eastern MA/RI. MVFR with localized IFR conditions will
also continue into Tue. E winds 6-12 knots today gradually
becoming NE at 8-16 knots by Tue. Some gusts to 20-25 kt are
possible tonight into Tue, primarily over the Cape and Islands.
Gusts also a possibility for eastern MA Tue morning into the
afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Moderate confidence.
Rain clears out of the region Tuesday night, though onshore
winds may keep conditions generally MVFR with areas of IFR
across southern New England. Lower cigs more likely over eastern
MA and RI.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Higher confidence in
overall trends, but exact timing is less certain.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday Night: VFR.
Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday Night...High confidence.
Weak high pressure over eastern Canada will continue combining with
low pressure tracking south of the waters. Resultant E wind gusts of
20-30 kt that will track northward tonight into Tuesday will prevail
over the waters. Winds will also end up shifting more NE tonight
into Tuesday. These will likely continue through Tuesday night as
well. Small Craft Advisories were extended for the northeastern
outer waters through Tuesday night as a result.
Seas to 5 ft build over the southern waters tonight, then shift to
the eastern waters Tuesday into Tuesday night. Pockets of 6 ft seas
are possible closer to the northern ocean water zones.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for MAZ017>022.
RI...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ231>234-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237-256.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
for ANZ250-254.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ255.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hrencecin/McMinn
AVIATION...Hrencecin/McMinn
MARINE...Hrencecin/McMinn
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 6, 3:28 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202607061928-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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