LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 2, 6:15 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...
615
FXUS64 KLIX 022315 AAA
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
615 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
...NEW AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
- Very normal summer pattern with warm days and scattered daily
showers and thunderstorms is expected through the next several
days. Chances of severe weather and heavy rain will be low, a
few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty
winds and/or locally heavy rainfall. The most favored day for
development is Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
Upper ridging was centered over western North Carolina this morning,
with troughing over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high
pressure was centered near Nashville. Onshore flow has aided in
production of showers and a few thunderstorms this morning. Away
from convection, temperatures were in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Heat advisories will not be issued for now as the column will be
ventilated each day. But temps will still be just under criteria so
a large amount of the area will still reach around 105 heat index
each day during the afternoon hours.
In the absence of any organized system or dynamics to support any
one place getting storms or not, guessing where the first storm pops
up will be like guessing where the first bubble will pop up in water
as it reaches boiling temp. This is a very normal summer scenario
for our area where your house may be getting a storm with heavy rain
and your neighbor across the street is dry. The next several days
will be like this. Some days will have a few more storms than
others, but for the most part 30-50% on a diurnal rhythm will be the
mainstay of this forecast. Within any typical population of
storms during any given day in the summer, one or two can very
well become a renegade storm producing strong winds, heavy
rainfall and even a waterspout/tornado but the risk level is not
high enough to have any confidence for any particular area. Going
by forecast precipitable water values, if there's a day that might
be slightly more favored for development than other days, it
would probably be Sunday. And if there is going to be a day drier
than the others, it would be tomorrow.
There's little day to day change in forecast temperatures, with any
deviation from those numbers likely to be determined by when and
where convection develops each day. Unlikely to make any significant
adjustments to NBM temperatures through Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
After the holiday weekend ends, the ridge, albeit weaker will remain
over the region with the 594dm dome over the southeast US. This
feature doesn't really move much through the week and settles
right over the area through the end of the long term. In a general
sense, any troughing looks to remain north of 35N across the
country. This will continue to promote above average temperatures.
With southerly low level flow, moisture will continue to advect
into the region from the Gulf/Tropics. Temperatures in the mid 90s
plus high humidity values will again fuel the potential need for
additional heat headlines at midweek next week. The good news is
with the rich low level flow along with sea/lake breezes each day,
convection will be possible during peak heating, which could help
a bit with the heat. Although, at this juncture nothing more than
climo POPs (30 to 40 percent) given placement of the ridge and at
least a bit of subsidence. Also, with a bit more dry air aloft,
the more robust updrafts will likely because strong gusty winds.
There's once again no real day to day change in temperature
forecasts, therefore, no real need to make adjustments.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
There maybe minor reductions overnight and early Friday morning
for BTR and MCB where rain fell this evening. Otherwise, outside
of this two sites, mostly VFR conditions are expected through the
cycle. There could be isolated convection again Friday afternoon.
Covered the best chances/terminals with PROBs for now. Otherwise,
winds will continue to remain rather light and variable. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
Winds will generally be 10 knots or less and direction will vary
through about Saturday, becoming more predominantly southerly as
high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf late in the weekend.
The overall gradient is relatively weak which is why winds
struggle to exceed 10 knots and seas/waves mostly under a couple
feet. Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day. A few
may be stronger and could produce gusty winds and/or waterspouts,
and locally hazardous seas.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RW
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 2, 6:15 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202607022315-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX-AAA)
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