CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 28, 3:13 AM EDT
416
FXUS61 KCLE 280713
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
313 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. Most of the attention is on
the forthcoming building heat.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat building and dewpoints rising this week.
2) Strong upper ridge will break down towards the end of the week with
chances for showers and storms returning Friday into the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front will track through the region late Monday, but the main
feature of note for this heat wave will be the building upper level
ridge over the Ohio Valley. Topping out around 597dkm, it will
slowly drift towards the mid Atlantic by the end of the week.
Midweek temperatures likely to be the hottest during this period,
and expect 850mb temperatures to reach the 22-24C range. At the
surface, this will translate to mid to upper 90s for the bulk of the
CWA for Tuesday through Thursday, and ever so slightly cooler Friday
into Saturday. The other component of this forecast to watch will be
the dewpoints, which will oscillate in the upper 60s to lowers 70s
range. Together, this translates to heat index values in the 100s.
Could get a little wind, however, and 8-12kts of southwesterly winds
this week could provide slight relief at times. Overnight lows in
the 70s will not allow for much recovery, and this could easily turn
into a cumulative issue in terms of overall heat for the region.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Expecting the strong upper level ridge to break down over the
weekend, putting the area back into the fringe of the synoptic scale
flow aloft. This could allow upper level disturbances back into the
region, and potentially the returning chances for convection. Will
need to watch how details unfold, and if there can be anything
organized that can come through the region, along with any severe
potential. Temperatures at least back towards the lower 90s for this
period, but still on the hot and humid side.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
There is a divide with VFR to the north and non-VFR to the south
across the airspace early this morning. With moisture trapped
close to the surface and some of the mid-level clouds eroding,
expecting a mix of fog/mist and low stratus to start developing
across portions central Ohio and expand northward through the
night. Currently, some MVFR ceilings are present at KMFD, KCAK,
and KYNG, but suspect that visibility will start to fall over
the next several hours and the low stratus will low to IFR and
perhaps LIFR levels. For KTOL, KCLE, and KERI, suspect that the
dry northeast flow will prevent some of these lower ceilings and
visibility to reach these terminals. High pressure will continue
to build into the region and low visibility and ceilings will
mix out through the day. All terminals will improve to VFR with
light northeast flow. Some pop up showers are possible around
KCAK and KYNG this afternoon but confidence is too low to
include in a TAF.
Outlook...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Weak low pressure moves to the south of Lake Erie today as high
pressure will build in across the region this evening from the
north. Conditions across the lake will be rather quiet for the next
several days with winds out of the northeast at around 10 knots,
weakening to 5-10 knots tonight with the high building in. Monday
evening, a warm front will move north across the region and winds
will shift to be out of the south-southwest and increase to around
10 knots. High pressure builds into the region next week with quiet
conditions expected at this time.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Hotter and more humid weather is expected this Monday through Friday.
Record warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records
for each of our climate stations:
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
06-29 100(1952) 96(1934) 94(2012) 98(1952) 99(1933) 90(2021)
06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930)
07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018)
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...23
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 28, 3:13 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202606280713-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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