LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 26, 1:26 PM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
886
FXUS64 KLIX 261826
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
126 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 126 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
- Strong heat will be back with heat index readings up to 108F
this weekend and into the new workweek with heat advisories
becoming increasingly likely this weekend into early next week.
- Ongoing minor river flooding continues to impact parts of the
Pearl and Pascagoula River Basins.
- Potential for heavy rainfall and strong/severe storms returns
toward the middle of next week as an easterly waves moves over
the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Taking a look at the radar and satellite over the region, much
quieter today than the last few. This is because the region is
undergoing a pattern change with an upper level ridge building
eastward into the region from Texas. This 593dam ridge should
build over our region through the day on Saturday. With all the
recent rainfall, humidity values during the afternoon will remain
elevated despite some mixing during peak heating. A Heat Advisory
has been issued around the tidal lakes for Saturday where
temperatures and humidity increase the "feels like" temperatures
to potentially hazardous levels (generally 108F to 110F
respectively).
Going into Sunday and Monday the ridge continues to park itself
over the region, which will again have two primary impacts. First,
with the subsidence around any type of shower/storm activity will
be limited substantially...so more time to dry out. Secondly,
however, is the bad news. Temperatures will be above average with
"feels like" temperatures nearing hazardous thresholds each
afternoon. By Monday the ridge begins to lift northward toward the
midsouth. This will be the start of another pattern change, but
most of the impacts of that will be felt in the long term. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
The pattern looks to turn rather wet once again in the long term.
Globals are hinting that an inverted H5 trough (or easterly wave)
will round the southern periphery of the upper level ridge that
will settle as a strong 598dam heat bubble somewhere over the
upper Ohio River Valley. This will help generate at least
diurnally driven convection starting on Tuesday and really picking
up on Wednesday and Thursday. Globals are a bit different in terms
of timing of the inverted impulses with the GFS being the quicker
solution. Although rain chances have increased, they are not
increasing too quickly because of the slight uncertainty in terms
of timing, but still middle of the road POPs is the best practice
here given if nothing else there will be sea breeze activity even
if the best support is delayed a bit. As POPs increase
temperatures will drop slightly, which should take care of any
need for heat headlines later in the cycle. Temperatures are still
in the lower 90s, but if POPs continue to increase and more
confidence develops as it should, temperatures will likely respond
in a slight downward trend toward average for late June and early
July. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Winds have gotten increased slightly this afternoon with some
gusts just shy of 20kts on the southshore at times. That said,
little if any convection expected and mostly VFR conditions
through the cycle. The on exception will be MCB where lower
VIS/CIGs could develop later tonight. Otherwise, winds should calm
around or shortly after sunset as the atmosphere decouples. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Mostly favorable marine conditions through the upcoming weekend with
generally light southerly onshore flow expected. Rain chances are
also on the lower end due to high pressure building into the region.
This high will move north of the local waters early next week and be
replaced with an easterly wave that is expected to move over the
local waters Tuesday through Thursday. With this wave expect an
uptick in convection with higher rain chances, mostly during the
overnight and morning hours. Locally higher winds and seas will be
possible in and around convection along with frequent cloud-to-water
lightning. (Frye)
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ057-058-
076>078-080-082-084-086-087-098>100.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 26, 1:26 PM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202606261826-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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