PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 27, 1:46 PM EDT
052
FXUS61 KPBZ 271746
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
146 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Flood Watch was cancelled early. Key messages updated.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Drier but still potential for showers Sunday, but no
flooding forecast.
2) High confidence in a heat wave /three straight days above
90F/ outside of the mountains next week. This will support a
major a heat risk and potential severe weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The baroclinic zone remains nearly stationary across northern
West Virginia through Sunday before it begins to wash out as it
moves into a building ridge Monday. Until then, scattered
showers and storms are possible. The greatest coverage will be
closer to the boundary along and south of the Mason-Dixon line.
Precipitation will be more scattered and not train over an area
requiring a flood watch. Storm motion won't be ideal /10 -
15knots/, so localized flooding can't be ruled out especially
in West Virginia. Increased sunshine will allow temperatures to
climb into the lower to mid 80s Sunday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
The story of next week is the hot weather areawide. A mid level
ridge of high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. This will
lead to the hottest weather of the year so far, not record
breaking with respect to afternoon high temperatures, but a high
probability of breaking warm overnight low temperatures at
several sites Wednesday - Friday. The hottest weather will be
Wednesday and Thursday where widespread mid and upper 90s will
be common. The latter more so in urban areas. With dewpoints in
the upper 60s to mid 70s (still a debate if we get this high)
pushes heat index values to the century mark and beyond Tuesday
through Friday for a good chunk of the region outside of the
mountains. Interesting tidbit, the combination of 95 degree air
temperature and 75 degree dewpoint or greater has only happened
four times since 1952 at Pittsburgh, so getting this humid is a
low chance historically.
Heat headlines will be needed next week for parts of the area.
Remember a heat advisory is issued for heat index values
between 100-104F and a extreme heat warning is issued for heat
index values 105F and greater. In addition, heat risk will be in
the major category /level 3 of our 4/ with an extreme heat risk
/level 4 out of 4/ for the lower elevations Wednesday and
Thursday. However, since 2005, Pittsburgh has not verified an
extreme heat risk, so we will see if the dewpoint forecast
trends a smidge lower, which will have an impact on this index.
Another refresher, NWS heat risk is a color- numeric based
index that uses high resolution weather, climate, and CDC heat-
health data to identify potentially dangerous heat.
It is also good to point out that a big driver of impacts to
people in heat waves are the overnight low temperatures. This is
because people can't cool off at night especially those without
air conditioners. If you have friends / family that are
sensitive to heat, elderly, or without AC, please check on them
next week.
Machine learning models are all pointing to an uptick in severe
weather Friday - Sunday across the region. Granted this is far
down the road, but when we have a heat wave, typically there is
a round of severe weather that ends it with the ridge
flattening and the westerlies driving a weather system through.
As of now, the probabilities are largely in the 15%-30%, a few
of the worse case scenarios are above 50%, but those typically
run hot /pun very much intended/.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions linger this afternoon along
with scattered light showers and drizzle. Minor improvement to
prevailing MVFR or even VFR is expected through the afternoon
as daytime heating/mixing continues to lift cloud bases and
possibly even provide some peeks of sun. Additional shower and
thunderstorm activity is possible later this afternoon and
evening before convection wanes after sunset. Restrictions drop
back to prevailing IFR (locally LIFR) overnight with stagnant
moisture remaining trapped near the surface. Improvement in
cigs/vis is again anticipated during late morning or afternoon
on Sunday. Winds remain light and variable throughout the 24
hour TAF period.
Outlook...
Active weather continues with intermittent rounds of showers
and thunderstorms (and associated restrictions) expected
through Sunday. High pressure builds into the area by Monday,
leading to hotter temperatures and what appears most likely to
be a dry forecast through at least the first half of next week.
However, there is some guidance that continues to suggest daily
thunderstorm chances linger next week, though coverage would be
isolated and therefore the probability of impacts to area
terminals remains low (roughly 10%).
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for 06/30 (Tue):
New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 95 Record: 93/1964
Record High Minimum Temperatures for 06/30 (Tue):
New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 72 Record: 71/1991
Pittsburgh PA Forecast: 71 Record: 74/1933
Zanesville OH Forecast: 72 Record: 74/1934
Record High Temperatures for 07/01 (Wed):
New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 96 Record: 96/1991
Record High Minimum Temperatures for 07/01 (Wed):
Wheeling WV Forecast: 75 Record: 75/1901
Morgantown WV Forecast: 74 Record: 74/1901
New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 76 Record: 71/2014
Zanesville OH Forecast: 74 Record: 73/1913
Record High Temperatures for 07/02 (Thu):
New Philadelphia Forecast: 96 Record: 95/1966
Pittsburgh PA Forecast: 95 Record: 97/1931
Record High Minimum Temperatures for 07/02 (Thu):
Wheeling WV Forecast: 76 Record: 73/2018
Morgantown WV Forecast: 74 Record: 74/1901
New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 76 Record: 73/2018
Pittsburgh PA Forecast: 76 Record: 76/1903
Zanesville OH Forecast: 75 Record: 71/1903
Record High Minimum Temperatures for 07/03 (Fri):
Wheeling WV Forecast: 76 Record: 77/1903
Morgantown WV Forecast: 75 Record: 74/1901
New Philadelphia OH Forecast: 77 Record: 71/1991
Pittsburgh PA Forecast: 76 Record: 76/1898
Zanesville OH Forecast: 76 Record: 78/1935
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...McMullen
AVIATION...Cermak
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 27, 1:46 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202606271746-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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