LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 25, 6:14 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...
590
FXUS64 KLIX 252314
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
614 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
- A few storms will be possible again this afternoon with the
best chances in southern and southeastern Mississippi.
- Strong heat will be back with heat index readings up to 108F
starting Sunday into the new workweek with heat advisories
becoming increasingly likely this weekend into early next week.
- Ongoing minor river flooding continues to impact parts of the
Pearl and Pascagoula River Basins.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Likely one more round of convection going into this afternoon with
the best convective signal residing east of I55, including most of
Mississippi and the Florida Parishes. Today the DCAPE values are
quite a bit lower, almost by half when compared to yesterday,
which means gusty winds will be a bit more of an exception rather
than the rule, however, still not impossible in the wider and
stronger updrafts. Convection should begin to decrease around
sunset this evening and probably refocus over the MS Sound later
tonight. Once again, with landbreeze/surface convergent boundary
any cells later tonight locked into those boundaries would
probably produce waterspouts.
On Friday The weak H5 ridge over Texas begins to move over our
region and will likely get a bit stronger was it does. Again, this
will put the brakes on any convective development with the
increasing subsidence a loft. This will also allow our
temperatures to begin to soar well into the 90s. Usually in
events such as these we will begin to see some afternoon mixing
help bring down dry air. However, as green as we are after the
heavy rainfall, this will be a challenge with evapotranspiration
taking place helping maintain surface moisture. Why is this
important? toward the end of the weekend heat index values will
approach 105F+ and we will start watching for the need for heat
headlines. Otherwise, with the ridge building into a 595dam heat
bubble over the lower MS Valley, expect most of any type of
rainfall to be well east and north over the Tennessee Valley south
and eastward toward the Florida Peninsula again keeping our
region dry. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Going into the long range, continued hot with possible heat
headlines needed as daytime temperatures and humidity values
remain rather high impacting heat index values with some locations
approaching 110F during the afternoon hours. Again, given the soil
moisture and green vegetation mixing will likely not help, so RH
values will likely remain on the higher side. The H5 ridge will
begin to spread northward away from the CWA going into midweek and
positioning over the Ohio River Valley. Although still hot, there
will be a few inverted shortwaves round the southern periphery of
this ridge, which will help generate shower and thunderstorm
activity during peak heating likely starting on Tuesday, but
really showing up on Wednesday with less H5 ridge influence
(subsidence) and more tropical moisture moving back into the
region. For now, keeping middle of the road POPs, but as
confidence increases on timing of each impulse, we expect overall
chances to increase, again during the afternoon and evening.
(Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
A much drier area of high pressure will continue to build over the
area through tonight and into tomorrow. This will result in
prevailing VFR conditions at all of the terminals through the
entire forecast period. Although there are some fog probabilities
at MCB around daybreak, the risk is too minimal to include in the
forecast. PG
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Surface high will move east bringing onshore flow back to the
coastal waters this evening, which will remain through the weekend.
More thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, especially over
the coastal MS waters, causing strong erratic winds in and near
these storms as they move across the open waters. Conditions improve
over the weekend as winds weaken to light and variable with high
pressure moving over the north central gulf. Winds will be higher in
and near any storms that develop. (Frye)
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RDF
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 25, 6:14 PM CDT ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202606252314-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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