Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #496 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
863
AWUS01 KWNH 220817
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-221345-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0496
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Areas affected...southern IN into central KY
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 220816Z - 221345Z
SUMMARY...An isolated to widely scattered flash flood threat will
linger across portions of southern IN into central KY over the
next several hours. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr, but possibly
higher on an isolated basis, are expected. Any additional areas of
flash flooding should remain low in coverage.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 08Z continued to indicate scattered
thunderstorms from southern IN into portions of central KY,
located near a rain-cooled outflow boundary that extended from
near EVV to FTK to just north of DVK. The west to east orientation
of this boundary has been similar to average cell motions with low
level flow to the east of a cold front over IL, supporting
overrunning of the rain-cooled airmass and continued areas of
repeating/training. SPC mesoanalysis data from 08Z showed MLCAPE
of 500 to 1500+ over central to western KY (highest to west),
which has been edging eastward over the past 3-6 hours.
Until a shortwave trough over southern MI into IL advances east,
low level winds will continue with enough of a southerly component
to maintain the potential for scattered thunderstorms from
southern IN into central KY, near the slow moving outflow
boundary. Veering of the low level flow is forecast after 12Z
which, along with the cold front approaching from the west, should
disrupt the ongoing pattern favorable for repeating and brief
training of thunderstorms across the OH Valley. Until that happens
however, an isolated to widely scattered flash flood threat will
remain with potential for 1 to 2+ in/hr rain rates and additional
totals of 2 to 4 inches on an isolated basis.
Otto
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...PAH...
ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 38838560 38468369 37898313 37308342 37198528
37568787 38608752
Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #496 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=496&yr=2026)
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