PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 17, 11:11 PM CDT
539
FXUS63 KPAH 180411
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1111 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Wind Advisory is in effect through sunset over most of
southeast MO, southern IL, and southwest IN, and a portion of
northwest KY, while a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for
Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley.
- An area of thunderstorms is still expected to move southeast
across much of the region late this evening into the overnight
hours. Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible,
primarily along the Interstate 64 corridor through southern
Illinois and southwest Indiana.
- Very heavy rainfall rates may result in flash flooding this
evening into the early overnight hours over southwest Indiana.
There's a 15-25% chance of 1 in/hr or greater rainfall rates
over those locations. A flash flood watch has been issued as a
result.
- Additional showers and storms are expected (40-70%) Thursday
and Thursday night over the Missouri Bootheel and west
Kentucky, with lesser chances farther north and west. A few
strong to severe storms with damaging winds cannot be ruled
out over west Kentucky in the afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
A very strong storm system passing through the central CONUS through
Thursday, will keep very strong winds in place late this afternoon
through early this evening. The pressure gradient will then relax
later tonight into Thursday morning as the low lifts northeast of
the area. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 8 pm for
portions of SEMO, southern IL and SWIN with a Lake Wind Advisory in
effect for the Lakes of western KY through the same time period.
For the Wind Advisory, wind gusts to 45 mph are expected with
probabilities pushing in the 60-90% range in the Wind Advisory.
Winds will be a bit lower over western KY even though gusts will
still reach into the 30-40 mph range this afternoon and evening.
Severe storms are expected to develop north of the Quad State this
afternoon in a highly favorable environment for severe weather.
Instability values north of the area are expected to be in the 2000-
3000 J/kg range with deep layer shear values progged to be around 40-
50kts!! As these storms sag south late this afternoon into this
evening and approach the northern portion of the CWA in southern IL
and southwest IN the instability is expected to decrease to some
extent. In fact, guidance suggests that instability would drop down
closer to around 1500-2000 J/kg as the line or even semi-discrete
storms in the line sag south into the area. That is plenty to keep a
severe storm threat in place for areas north of the I-64 corridor,
especially with deep layer shear still remaining around 35 to 45
kts. At least a portion of the 0-3km (30-40kt) shear vectors appear
to be aligned orthogonal to the line of storms as they are forecast
to be out of the west to west-northwest.
That would introduce not only a damaging wind threat, but also QLCS
spin-ups along the line. 0-3km helicity is very high to our north,
around 400-500 m2/s2! While it does drop off as wind fields
gradually weaken to the south helicity is still around 200-300
m2/s2. Again, just pointing to the continued concern for spin up
tornadoes. A couple of the high res models keep enough instability
south of the line to keep it going later into the night, but most
have a diminishing trend. I wouldn't be surprised if it stay strong
to severe a little longer than is currently painted out by the
models. The slight risk and marginal farther south is definitely
warranted. All modes of severe all possible with a heavier weight on
wind damage and spin up potential.
Flash flooding may occur over southwest IN as rainfall rates may be
greater than 1 in/hr (15-25%) with RFC FFG being around 1.5 in/hr in
the urban areas.
The associated frontal boundary will linger across SEMO into western
KY through Thursday afternoon. Depending on how much cloud cover
lingers and exactly where the boundary is located, there could be
yet more severe potential Thursday afternoon. If the instability of
1000-1500 J/kg is realized, then deep layer shear values of 25-30kts
would give a severe weather threat Thursday afternoon, mainly across
western KY. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats along
with heavy downpours.
A more unsettled stretch of weather is still expected to arrive over
the weekend into early next week. The added precipitation will help
keep temperatures a bit cooler (low to mid 80s),but widespread
totals of 1-3 inches of rain will be possible through that time
period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
Convection remains the primary flight concern this TAF period.
Storms are very slowly sagging southward ahead of a stalling
cold front. Best chance for impacts will be EVV/OWB but can't
rule it out completely anywhere. Prevailing VFR conditions with
relatively light winds are forecast for Thursday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ Thursday for INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...JGG
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 17, 11:11 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202606180411-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!