PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 11, 1:34 PM EST
579
FXUS61 KPBZ 111834
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
134 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather through the weekend will bring rounds of
snow, as well as fluctuating temperature and gusty winds.
Overall, snowfall accumulations favor areas north of Interstate
80 and the ridges of southwest Pennsylvania and northern West
Virginia.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Lingering upslope and lake-effect snow showers today taper off
after sunset; light accumulations possible north of I-80 and
in the ridges
- Below seasonal temperatures continue
- WSW in north and PA ridges extended to 00Z
---------------------------------------------------------------
The current conditions feature the Upper OH Valley under W-NW
flow through the day and resulting in passing lake effect snow
showers through the region. The morning 12Z sounding did indeed
have some low level instability and saturation, though shallow,
over the DGZ just off the surface. This still makes the
environment favorable for some weaker snow squalls through the
day but becoming weaker as wind direction shifts more to the
west. The Advisory in effect for the northern counties and the
ridges to the east will remain in effect until 00Z when the
shallow moisture layer finally disappears. Low temps tonight
will be well below normal with lows at least 10 degrees below
normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Weak disturbance passes to south on Friday
- Sat/Sun disturbance slated to impact the forecast area
- Below normal temperatures persist
----------------------------------------------------------------
A weak shortwave dives across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic
first thing Friday morning, bringing increasing snow chances
south of I-70 with the best chance for light accumulations in
the ridges of northern WV if not only Tucker county. There has
been a decent jog in the storm track to the south with run to
run in the NBM and for that matter, many of the deterministic
models. For now, will expect 1 to 2 inches in Tucker County.
A second shortwave hot on its heels moves over the lower Great
Lakes overnight Friday into early Saturday. This second wave
brings light snow chances to more of the area but with little to
no additional accumulation.
The main concern will be the 3rd disturbance arriving late
Saturday and through Sunday morning. This disturbance continues
to remain within the progressive upper level track as it speeds
across the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley by Saturday evening.
The bullseye for the main band seems to line up over Fayette
County in the models. Also unsettling is that the 25th and 75th
percentile in this area of concern is 4 inches and 8 inches
respectively. Maintaining a strong 60% to 70% probability of 6
inches will make a situation that still needs to be watched.
The concern here is that this disturbance will take the route of
the previous one and sag south with time. Trends will need to
be monitored in the coming day to determine a possible chance in
track.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Much colder with snow chances through early next week
- Warmer with rain returning for the second half of the week
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate a deep upper trough will cross the
region Sunday. This, along with cold WNW flow across the Great
Lakes, will maintain snow chances across the region. Model
ensemble 850 mb temps drop to -19 to -20 deg C through the day,
with high temperatures only reaching the 15 to 20 degree range.
Low Sunday night are expected to be in the teens and single
digits, with wind chills in the single digits to as low as 15
below zero in the higher terrain of WV.
Snow chances should taper off Monday as low level ridging builds
in, and warm advection begins. Dry weather is then expected
through mid week as the flow aloft becomes zonal, and
temperatures moderate. A trough embedded in the zonal flow is
progged to approach and cross the region Wednesday night through
Thursday night, with precipitation chances returning. Mainly
rain is expected, with 850 mb temperatures progged at +3 to +6
deg C.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Patchy MVFR (local IFR) in scattered snow showers through this
evening
- Low VFR (MVFR N of PIT) continues tonight
- MVFR cigs FKL, DUJ, MGW and ZZV Friday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Cold NW flow off of the Great lakes and broad upper troughing
will maintain an extensive stratocu layer across the region
through tonight. Scattered snow showers will continue through
this evening with lake enhancement under the upper trough. The
12Z PIT sounding also showed a steep lapse rate and saturation
through the dendritic growth zone, helping to maintain the snow
showers. The boundary layer flow is progged to back to the west
by this evening, confining the snow showers generally near and
north of I 80, where MVFR cigs are expected to persist. Gusty
wind will continue until this evening with mixing and a tight
surface pressure gradient.
Stratocu is expected to persist tonight as surface low pressure
tracks across the Midwest and Lower Ohio Valley region. Most of
the snow from this low should stay south of the TAF sites,
though some flurries are possible at MGW and ZZV. MVFR cigs are
likely at FKL and DUJ with cold wrly flow off of the Great
Lakes, and at ZZV and MGW where they will be on the northern
side of low pressure tracking across the Lower Ohio Valley
region.
Outlook...
A crossing cold front will continue restriction potential and
snow showers Saturday, with widespread restrictions and an
accumulating snowfall with an upper trough Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Patchy restrictions and scattered snow showers
are possible Monday under cold NW flow.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
PAZ007>009-015-016-074-076-078.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...WM
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 11, 1:34 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202512111834-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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