JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 29, 2:01 PM EST
911
FXUS63 KJKL 291901
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
201 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A round of light precipitation, mainly rain, is expected
tonight into Sunday.
- A more significant precip event may come Monday night and
Tuesday, with a little bit better potential for wintery
precipitation, especially north of the Mountain Parkway.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
The morning surface analysis shows high pressure has pushed
eastward and low pressure continues to deepen to the west across
the Plains. This is providing east to southeast flow across the
area. We are seeing an increase in mid to high level clouds
across northwestern parts of the CWA. Given this updated sky cover
to better show the increased cloud cover. Outside this only minor
changes needed to align temperatures with the latest obs and
trends.
UPDATE Issued at 739 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
Early morning obs are blended into the forecast without any
substantive changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 718 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
A return of warm air advection and at least some limited sun will
give modestly warmer temps for today. The approach of our next
weather system will give us an increase in clouds, especially late
in the day. The next system is low pressure currently centered
near the OK/KS state line. It will move east northeast along with
its upper level support, passing over the Great Lakes on Sunday.
Warm air advection ahead of the system's cold front may bring
precipitation to our area tonight into Sunday. Some of this could
come as snow north of I-64 before the column warms up enough for
all rain. However, precip amounts should remain light and
temperatures above freezing, so no problems are expected.
The system's cold front passes through on Sunday and high
pressure then begins to build in from the northwest with another
cold air mass, shutting down our short-lived warm-up and bringing
a return of dry conditions. However, the dry weather also looks
to be brief.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
The period begins Monday morning with dry weather as surface high
pressure retreats to the north and east during the day. Attention
then quickly turns to the next system approaching from the west.
Surface cyclogenesis will occur across the Deep South and generally
track just inland across the Southeast CONUS before moving up the
East Coast. With a southerly track, we will remain in colder air and
will have a higher threat of wintery precip, especially in our
northern counties. At this point it looks like a nuisance type
system, but there will likely be continued fluctuations to the
outlook. The highest probability (50 to 60 percent chance) of
significant snow accumulations will be mainly along and north of
Interstate 64 for the Monday night-Tuesday time period, according to
the operational NBM valid early afternoon Saturday, with values
decreasing to 20 percent roughly along a Mount Vernon-Jackson-
Paintsville line. South of Interstate 64, the best chance of seeing
snow seems to be during the morning and early afternoon Tuesday as
the column cools from the top down with the arrival of the upper
trough and before precipitation ends from the west.
Once it passes, dry weather looks to occur Wednesday and Thursday,
with another system arriving to end the week Friday into Friday
night. Though models as of now show this system more disorganized
than the early week system, most models do show overrunning precip
as far north as KY, but with an atmosphere probably warm enough for
rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
We are starting the period VFR under the influence of southeast
flow and surface high pressure off to the east. The remainder of
the afternoon into this evening we will continue to see increasing
clouds and these will lower overtime into the MVFR level or lower
at times. A storm system will move across the Ohio Valley and
will bring light rain into the region tonight. Overall not
expecting too much in the way of lower Vis right now given the
light nature, but did add in a Prob30 for some high-end MVFR Vis
not being out of the question. We will see a period of LLWS
tonight given the lower wind speeds at the surface. The winds will
mostly be 10 knots of less tonight and becoming more southwest by
Sunday morning. We could see a bump up in gust late morning into
early afternoon Sunday, with the arrival of the front in the 15 to
20 knot range.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...DJ
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 29, 2:01 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202511291901-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!