JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 27, 1:15 PM EST
576
FXUS63 KJKL 271815 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
115 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold and drier airmass will settle into the region today and
through Black Friday.
- There is still considerable uncertainty in the forecast for the
early to middle part of next week. Some wintry precipitation is
possible during the Monday night through Tuesday night period.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 100 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones.
UPDATE Issued at 955 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
14Z sfc analysis shows high pressure trying to work into the area
from the west as chilly cold advection continues on west to
northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph and under mostly cloudy skies.
Currently, temperatures are running in the low to mid 30s across
eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low
to mid 20s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest
obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a
freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 443 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
As of the 0730Z surface analysis, an occluding surface low-pressure
system is tracking eastward from the Great Lakes region into
southern Ontario. Extending equatorward from the low center, a cold
front is positioned along the Atlantic Seaboard, oriented roughly
north-south. Following the frontal passage, a dominant surface high-
pressure system has become firmly established across a vast portion
of the central CONUS. This 1032 mb high is centered over eastern
Nebraska, yet its expansive influence is evident across the CONUS
east of the Rocky Mountains. Locally, this anticyclonic influence is
producing dry weather over eastern Kentucky. Apart from mid- and
high-level clouds associated with the occluded low, current
conditions are tranquil and cold.
The remainder of the day and the duration of the short-term forecast
will be governed by the persistence of the surface high pressure,
ensuring continued dry weather. However, the upper-level flow will
remain northwesterly, favoring persistent CAA throughout the period.
Consequently, todays maximum temperatures are projected to reach the
upper 30s across northern areas, warming into the lower 40s to the
south. Overnight minimum temperatures will descend into the upper
teens to mid 20s. An advancing upper-level shortwave trough is
expected to usher in slightly colder air for Friday, resulting in
high temperatures a couple of degrees cooler, while conditions
remain dry.
The short-term forecast period will therefore be
characterized by surface high pressure and below-average
temperatures due to upper-level northwesterly flow and associated
CAA for both Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 443 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
The long-term forecast period commences with the continued dominance
of surface high pressure. To the west, an upper-level trough is
forecast to move rapidly from the Rocky Mountains across the Central
Plains and eject into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. This
evolution will induce a warm front to lift northward through the
Commonwealth, increasing the likelihood of precipitation beginning
late Saturday night. There is potential for a rain-snow mix ahead of
the warm front Saturday night, as surface temperatures may be
marginally cold enough to support frozen precipitation. However,
differences exist among model forecasts (e.g., soundings and
critical thickness contours) with some suggesting all rain (NAM and
ECMWF) and others a rain-snow mix (GFS). A slight lean towards a
rain-snow mix for a few hours is included during the initial warm
frontal passage. Once the warmer air mass is established, rain
showers are likely through the day Saturday into Sunday until the
passage of an associated cold front occurs overnight Sunday into
early Monday. Backside snow showers will be possible Monday morning
as strong CAA behind the cold front ushers significantly colder air
back into the region.
A weak surface ridge is forecast for Monday, but models indicate it
will quickly dissipate as another low-pressure system approaches
from the south. A second warm front is expected to lift through the
area, similar to Saturday nights setup, leading to the potential for
another wintry mix on Tuesday. Confidence is low regarding the
precise track of the surface low, critical temperatures, and
critical thickness values, making the Tuesday forecast challenging.
Nonetheless, the overall model trend suggests progressively colder
solutions, necessitating close monitoring of this system. Following
the departure of Tuesdays system, surface high pressure is forecast
to rebuild into the area for Wednesday, but another system is
projected to impact the region by Thursday.
The extended forecast period is highlighted by the passage of
multiple shortwave systems that will bring periods of winter
weather, commencing Saturday night and again on Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites with this issuance
and will continue to hold through the TAF window. Winds will
continue from the west northwest at 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts
will continue into the evening before diminishing through the rest
of the night. Winds will then pick up from the west at 5 to 10 kts
on Friday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 27, 1:15 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202511271815-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL-AAA)
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