JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 2:15 PM EST
996
FXUS63 KJKL 261915
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
215 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A strong cold front moves across the area and brings gusty
winds through this afternoon.
- A cold and drier airmass will settle into the region for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
- There is still considerable uncertainty in the forecast for the
early to middle part of next week. Some wintry precipitation is
possible during the Monday night through Tuesday night period.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
updating the latest effects of the front passing through. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 1020 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
14Z sfc analysis shows a sharp, but mainly dry, cold front
working east through eastern Kentucky late this morning. This
front is bringing a strong switch in the winds to the west
northwest and gusts up to 35 mph as it passes, along with falling
temperatures in its wake. Currently, temperatures vary from the
mid 50s in the far southeast, well ahead of the boundary, to the
low 40s behind it - in the northwest. Meanwhile, dewpoints range
from the mid and upper 30s northwest in the air mass behind the
front to the mid and upper 40s well out ahead of it. Have updated
the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids but also to fine tune the PoPs per the current
radar returns and near term CAMs consensus. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 423 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
Surface analysis as of 0730Z indicates the initial cold front has
already progressed eastward through the region. The central pressure
minimum of this system is currently situated over Lake Ontario. A
second, more significant surface low pressure center is located over
eastern Wisconsin, with a trailing cold front extending
southwestward. This second frontal boundary is currently advancing
into the Commonwealth, stretching back toward Colorado. Locally, a
line of precipitation echoes departing the eastern CWA, while a
subsequent line is moving into the CWA from the west. In the wake of
the initial frontal passage, west-to-northwesterly winds are
commencing to exhibit gustiness. Within the next several hours, a
Special Weather Statement (SPS) is anticipated for these sub-Wind
Advisory strength winds.
A vertically stacked, closed low-level circulation, currently
centered over Wisconsin, is forecast to track rapidly toward the
Great Lakes. This eastward progression through the morning hours
will drive the associated surface cold front quickly across the
Commonwealth, clearing the entire CWA by late this afternoon.
Following the frontal exit, surface high pressure will begin to
build in from the west. However, the upper-level flow pattern will
remain northwesterly, facilitating an advection of Arctic air.
Concurrently with this cold air intrusion, momentum transfer from
upper-level winds will promote increased surface wind speeds. As
previously noted, while these winds are not anticipated to meet Wind
Advisory criteria, an SPS will be issued to cover these gusts
through the afternoon.
Post-frontal surface high pressure is forecast to persist across the
region through the remainder of the short-term forecast, resulting
in a dry Wednesday afternoon and evening, and a cold, dry
Thanksgiving holiday. Maximum temperatures today will occur during
the morning hours, followed by a steady decline throughout the rest
of the day. Overnight minimum temperatures are expected to fall into
the upper 20s. Very limited diurnal temperature recovery is
anticipated for Thursday, with highs climbing only into the upper
30s north of the Parkway and warming marginally into the lower 40s
south of the Parkway.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
The period begins Friday morning with dry northwesterly flow and
cold advection continuing on the upstream side of a highly-amplified
upper trough over the East Coast. The cold advection winds down by
the evening as surface high pressure moves over the area, with warm
advection beginning late Friday night and increasing into the
weekend ahead of the next system which arrives late Saturday and
lasts through much of Sunday before exiting to the east. This
shortwave will dig southeast from the PacNW through the Central
Rockies into the Central CONUS before ejecting northeast through the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the day Sunday.
There may be some initial p-type concerns in the far northeastern
and southeastern parts of the forecast area at the onset of
precipitation Saturday night, which may struggle to warm up earlier
in the day after the chilly conditions from the morning, with an
hour or two of light wintry precipitation possible due to
evaporational cooling of a dry low-level air mass. However, no
winter weather impacts are expected at this time as increasingly
warmer air moves into the region and changes any potential wintry
precipitation to all rain. Previous WPC/CPC outlooks highlighted
parts of the area for a heavy rain potential with this system, but
it looks like the progressive nature and better moisture advection
being diverted more south and east will keep heavy rain concerns
minimal.
After what is increasingly looking like a drier period of weather
Sunday night into Monday (despite the NBM chance PoPs currently),
the next system arrives with an amplified shortwave moving from west
to east across the CONUS for late Monday night through Tuesday.
There are still significant model disagreements and run-to-run
inconsistencies between and within operational and ensemble member
systems with this system, but it bears close watching due to
potential wintery weather concerns for the late Monday night through
Tuesday night period, as it appears the rain-snow low-level
thickness line will be situated across at least parts of the
forecast area. Depending on how the system evolves, cold advection
upslope snow showers may occur Tuesday night into Wednesday on the
back side of this system.
Users of the NWS and NDFD forecasts are advised to not rely solely
on deterministic forecasts of wintery precipitation and especially
snow accumulations this far out. Forecasts are virtually guaranteed
to change many times between now and the early to middle part of
next week. As it stands as of early afternoon Wednesday, NBM v4.3
probability of exceedance values for greater than 1 inch of snow
for the Tuesday time period range from 15 to 25 percent mainly
north of the Mountain Parkway, and roughly 5 to 15 percent from
the Mountain Parkway south through the remainder of southeastern
Kentucky to the Tennessee and Virginia borders.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
MVFR and low end VFR conditions are prevailing across the TAF
sites in the wake of a strong cold front. Sustained west-
northwesterly winds around 15 knots and gusts to 25 knots will be
the rule through the rest of the afternoon and into the first
part of the evening. These winds will diminish by late night
before picking up again during the day on Thursday. Lingering
MVFR CIGs will improve to VFR in the next couple of hours with the
lower clouds holding on longest in northern parts of the area
where some CIGs will flirt with MVFR conditions through the
evening. Those CIGS will then break up later tonight with SKC
conditions then holding through the rest of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 2:15 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202511261915-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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