LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 1:42 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
689
FXUS64 KLIX 011842 CCB
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
142 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025
- Clouds increase this evening as the next weather system
approaches the area, introducing light rain chances mainly
across coastal and SE LA tonight. Little, if any impacts
expected.
- Another reinforcing shot of cool air filters in Sunday through
Tuesday, with chilly morning temps yet again and a few colder
areas reaching the upper 30s.
- A warming trend builds into the middle to later parts of next
week, reaching the low 80s for many areas while staying dry.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025
A mid/upper closed low over eastern Iowa with a shortwave trough
axis extending from it southwestward into Northeast TX will
continue to translate southeastward overnight. The main vort max
of this trough axis is anchored on the southern end and is
expected to pass to our west and south overnight into Sunday. The
net result will be the main dynamical forcing will remain to our
west and south as well. The river parishes will be on the
periphery of this forcing and with modest moisture advection in
the mid levels, there will be a low potential for light rain or
sprinkles from the late evening to early morning hours. Will
likely see virga and/or sprinkles given the very dry airmass
below 700 mb. Given the negligent return flow setup, the airmass
will remain fairly stable for almost the entire area except the
waters where there will be marginal instability.
The progressive nature of this shortwave will mean a rapid cloud
increase this evening will be followed by a rapid cloud decrease
during the morning hours on Sunday. Given the overall increase in
cloud cover for most of tonight, the overnight lows will not be
as cold as the past few nights and will be much closer to normal
early November levels. Despite sunny skies on Sunday, highs will
be cooler as CAA strengthens on the backside of this closed low
and shortwave trough. This CAA along with diminishing northerly
flow will result in a very chilly Sunday night/Monday morning.
Upper 30s to around 40 degrees will be quite common across the
Florida parishes and southern MS with widespread 40s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025
A cool airmass will persist through Tuesday morning as a 1027 mb
surface ridge builds southward into the CWA. Tuesday morning we
should again see some upper 30s in the colder drainage areas
albeit not quite as chilly as Monday morning. A moderating trend
in temperatures is expected from Tuesday onward as high pressure
at all levels builds into the CWA. More moderating southeast to
south flow at the surface by Thursday will further aid in the
warming trend. NBM deterministic highs are showing a bit "cooler"
highs mainly in the upper 70s to around 80 for Thursday and Friday
but the NBM 75th percentile highs indicate temperatures more in
the 81-83 range. By Saturday, widespread highs in the 80s look to
be likely given the established return flow setup (albeit weak)
by this time period. Along with the increasing return flow, there
will be an increase in cloud cover and an increasing potential for
fog given the lengthening nights and increasing surface
dewpoints.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025
VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours despite an
approaching upper disturbance tonight. May see cloud decks get
down to around 8k FT but low clouds will be quite limited given
the dry airmass in place with no appreciable means to moisten the
low levels. Will maintain a PROB30 -SHRA for KHUM given the
better proximity to the forcing from the disturbance. Clouds will
quickly clear out during the 08-12Z period on Sunday as the
disturbance quickly exits south and east of the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025
The aforementioned shortwave will move through the coastal waters
tonight. An increasing chance for showers along with perhaps a
few embedded thunderstorms will occur, especially across the
offshore waters during the late evening to Sunday morning
timeframe. Winds will increase in response to this disturbance and
may approach caution criteria by early Sunday morning mainly
across the offshore waters. The more pronounced gradient increase
will occur during the day on Sunday with SCA conditions expected
by 01-03Z Monday, especially across the offshore waters and the MS
Sound. Winds and seas will remain elevated through Monday as high
pressure continues to build into the waters along with persistent
CAA. Winds and seas will then begin to subside by Monday night
into Tuesday as the center of high pressure approaches the coastal
waters. Return flow is expected to begin by Thursday or Friday as
high pressure slowly shifts eastward. Dry conditions will prevail
next week with perhaps a few light streamer showers possible by
Saturday. For now, will keep "silent" POPs even for the end of
the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 44 64 37 65 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 47 68 39 68 / 10 0 0 0
ASD 47 71 39 68 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 56 72 49 68 / 20 0 0 0
GPT 50 71 44 68 / 10 0 0 0
PQL 45 71 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....MB
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MB
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 1:42 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202511011842-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX-CCB)
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