LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 2:44 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
836
FXUS64 KLIX 311944
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
244 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 240 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
- Chilly morning starting the day today with 40's areawide to mid
50's for the Southshore. Some low 40's for traditionally cooler
areas across southern MS, interior coastal SE MS and Pearl
River/Pascagoula basins.
- Next system approaches the area late Saturday into early
Sunday, with generally light rain chances along the SE LA
coast and adjacent marine areas. No impacts expected.
- Big story next week is a steady warming trend, reaching the
80's for a few locations by the middle to later part of the
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
Hello all you ghouls, ghosts, and goblins it looks like the
witches, wizards, and warlocks were able to conjure up an absolute
TREAT of a forecast for tonight with no TRICKS. However, the
tricks come with the temptation of rain late tomorrow and tomorrow
night but instead most of us will be like "I got a rock" when the
cold front moves through tomorrow night.
As you get ready to dawn those costumes, some of you may want a to
ad a cloak or make those poofy pants with a little more poofy as it
could get a little chilly by the end of your candy seeking
escapades. With high pressure already in place this evening, and
highs only getting into the mid to upper 60s for most of the area
today the stage is set and the cauldron has been brewed for another
great radiational cooling night. High pressure at the sfc will keep
the area quiet with dry air and light winds in place. Dewpoints in
firmly in the lower to mid 40s will allow the temperature to begin
to plummet as soon as the sun starts to go down. Temps will still be
in the lower to mid 60s for much of the area to start the evening
but by 2/3Z temps will drop into the lower to mid 50s for all but
the river parishes and Southshore (excluding the west bank of NO as
that area will cool quickly as well). Temperatures will continue to
drop through the night and by tomorrow morning outside of the
immediate Southshore morning lows will mainly be in the lower to mid
40s with isolated areas again dipping into the upper 30s in the
drainage basins.
As for the rest of the weekend this is where the trick in the
forecast has come into play. We have a system moving through the
area and it will bring a reinforcing cold front through the region.
Earlier in the week models suggested a rather wet pattern setting up
with locally heavy rain Sunday and into Monday but over the last 48
hours models quickly trended drier to even the point that coastal LA
may be the only land areas that see any real rain while much lighter
rain or more so sprinkles occur along the I-10 corridor in LA. North
of 10 looks dry now. All of the reliable guidance agrees with this
and given the strong trend and support agree with that. Looking at
GOES19 you can clearly see the initial culprit is a strong s/w
moving into southern MN already with an associated cold front
beginning to enter the Mid MS Valley and Central Plains. Strong mid
lvl winds are already dropping down the back side and this will
cause the trough to start to dig the system over the eastern CONUS.
The next much strong mid lvl surge coming down the backside of the
already digging trough is in central Canada and will enhance the mid
lvl jet tomorrow and this will greatly amplify and help to dig the
trough but the problem is longitudinally the core is already almost
directly in line with us. So as the trough digs and deepens the best
forcing and any real airmass recovery will be east of the area. The
window becomes very small for any real moisture recovery and that
would actually be from top down but even isentropically the only
real isentropic lift will be across southwestern LA and then that
digs to the southeast pretty much completely south off the SELA
coast overnight. With that rain is going to be very hard to come by
and then by sunrise any rain that is even out which would be south
of I-10 will quickly push southeast out of the area with a cool and
getting drier Sunday in place. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Thursday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
Overall the extended portion of the forecast is fairly benign
with mainly a temperature problem. Models continue to indicate a
dry forecast next week with a cool start to the work week ending
with possibly a rather warm Friday from a high standpoint. Overall
the only real forecast opportunity is temperatures and that is
mainly Monday and Tuesday. The Operational NBM just looks awful
from a morning low forecast for Monday and Tuesday. The
deterministic forecast continue to be well above the 75th or 90th
percentile depending on the site and day. To be fair it is not
that awful for the entire area the main areas that make it look so
bad is at our typical colder sites where the forecast low from
the NBM is anywhere from 4 to 6 degrees higher than the 50th
percentile. Now the other thing to mention the experimental NBM
forecast for the lows Monday and Tuesday is actually within 1
degree of the operational NBM50 and looks very good. Given that
stuck almost exclusively with the NBM50 especially in the drainage
areas and also dropped the dewpoints down considerably from the
NBM.
Next week begins with northwest flow as we are on the backside of
the digging east CONUS L/W trough digs into the southeastern CONUS
and eastern Gulf. But this quickly slides east with a strong ridge
over TX on Monday sliding east Tuesday and the ridge continues to
slide east through the middle of the week. That said this ridge
flattens out considerably. What this does is it will allow the area
to moderate beginning Tuesday and continuing through the rest of the
week but we likely won't see4 the real warm up till Friday when 80s
could be a little more widespread. So the main focus is on morning
lows Monday and Tuesday and mentioned in the previous paragraph we
dropped the forecast considerably going with the NBM50 and are
explicitly showing lows dropping into the upper 30s with a low value
of 37 in a few locations. We look quite cold again Sunday and Monday
night. However, there are some caveats that could come back to bite
though.
For Monday morning...are there any lingering highs clouds; that does
not look like the case. Winds, that is the biggest concern Sunday
night/Monday morning. At the sfc high pressure is quickly building
back in but it will not be completely over the area yet. That said
the boundary layer winds will likely decouple with light and vrb
winds and possibly even calm in the drainage locations. However,
just above the boundary layer in the LL winds may remain a little
strong. H925 winds could remain as high as 20 kts all night while
h85 could stray around 25 kts. However there is some rather decent
CAA taking place late Sunday and all Sunday night. Typically in the
decent CAA regimes winds stay up and looking at the impressive h925
and h85 CAA that will likely be able to overcome any mixing
potential. As for Monday night at first glance the radiational
cooling setup looks really good. High pressure, light winds, dry
conditions, and likely clear skies. The one thing to watch is the
opposite of Sunday night. There is rather impressive WAA in the LL
late Monday and overnight and when that happens and can have a
pretty decent impact on overnight cooling. The one positive aspect
towards radiational cooling is that we will be VERY dry and whet we
likely see will be a very sharp inversion in the boundary layer with
the temperature likely warming by 15 to 20 degrees in 400' or less.
just here at the office this morning at balloon launch time we had a
15 degree temperature inversion in under 400' and it was likely even
more than that when we finally hit our low this morning.
The rest of the forecast is quiet, with warming conditions and a dry
forecast. Again for the temps warming morning lows will still be
quite comfortable and slightly below normal thanks to the dry
conditions leading to nice diurnal ranges for the second half of the
week as highs warm into the 70s with isolated 80s by Thursday and
maybe a little more widespread on Friday. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
Again there are no concerns aviation wise as VFR conditions will most
likely persist at all terminals. Can not completely rule out HUM
from showing FG/BR again tomorrow morning however that is very
shallow ground fog typically only 3-5 ft high and not a concern. All
other terminals will be good. Next system move through late tomorrow
afternoon and through the night. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025
Quite and cool conditions will persist for another 18 hours
before the next system begins to move in. This system will move
across the north-central Gulf Saturday night and Sunday bringing a
reinforcing cold front. Along and just ahead of this front there will
be scattered showers and along with an isolated embedded
thunderstorms overnight but everything will move through very
quickly and this front will be through the coastal waters shortly
after sunrise if not sooner. Winds will increase briefly with
moderate to strong offshore winds over the mostly the open waters
Sunday morning through Sunday night. SCS or low end SCY headlines
will likely be needed for the open waters. Through Monday as high
pressure builds in, winds will relax slowly veering through the week
with weak onshore flow returning be the second half of the work
week. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 42 68 45 64 / 0 0 10 0
BTR 45 72 47 68 / 0 10 10 0
ASD 39 71 46 69 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 52 73 56 72 / 0 0 20 10
GPT 46 70 51 70 / 0 0 10 10
PQL 38 72 44 71 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 2:44 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510311944-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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