LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 9:13 PM EST ...Updated Key Messages...
553
FXUS63 KLMK 110213
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
913 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
...Updated Key Messages...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Isolated slick spots are possible tonight, especially on untreated
bridges and overpasses.
* Very cold weather is expected Tuesday morning, with lows in the
upper teens to lower 20s. Wind chill values Tuesday morning will
be in the lower-middle teens.
* Drier pattern for the remainder of the week with a warming trend
in temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
Much of the area has cleared out this evening as the mid-level
trough axis has pushed to the east of the Appalachians, resulting in
anticyclonic motion and subsidence aloft. There is one remaining
band of low-to-mid level moisture which extends from the Hoosier
National Forest down into western KY at this hour. Within this band,
there are some scattered clouds and a few lingering light snow
showers, with HNB reporting brief snow over the past hour or so.
Looking at RAP soundings, it appears that the narrow band of
saturation extends into the DGZ, with just enough mid-level
vorticity remaining to support weak rising motion and ice crystal
generation.
As we head through the rest of the evening, this area of moisture is
expected to dissipate, with mostly clear skies expected for much of
the night. Higher level clouds will begin to stream into the region
from the northwest around daybreak Tuesday. Temperatures are on
track to fall into the low-to-mid 20s tomorrow morning, with some
upper teens possible in the coldest valleys. While road surfaces are
gradually drying out, a few slick spots are likely, especially east
of I-65 over the next few hours. While an SPS covers the areas most
likely to see slick roads, isolated slick spots are possible
anywhere within the CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
Deep troughing and a closed upper low are swinging through the Ohio
Valley today. This deep troughing and surface troughing has provided
plenty of lift to help promote snow showers. Additionally, steep
lapse rates and ample moisture in the DGZ has also enhanced the snow
development. Looking at satellite, there has been intermittent
sunshine over southern and central Kentucky, which has allowed for
about 100 J/kg of uninhibited SBCAPE to develop. This instability
coupled with freezing or near freezing ground temperatures and gusty
winds has allowed for some snow showers to intensify to snow
squalls. In heavy showers and squalls, observed visibilities 1/2
mile or less have been noted. Since there is intermittent sunshine,
snow is melting soon after falling. A Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect until 0Z.
This evening, the upper closed low and trough will swing east of the
region, bringing snow chances and clouds with it. High pressure will
pass to the south and winds will back to the southwest overnight.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the low-mid 20s, and some
cooler spots in the upper teens. Since snow melted during the day
today, and temperatures will be well below freezing tonight, there
is a chance for some slick spots on roads tonight. We should not see
widespread issues, especially in exposed areas, due to the steady
winds overnight helping to dry things out.
On Tuesday, the lower Ohio Valley will be under northwesterly flow,
where a weak shortwave trough will swing just north of the region.
This may bring some very light rain during the day. Though, there is
quite a bit of dry air in the low levels that this precip will have
to overcome. For this reason, going to keep very low-end PoPs for
very light rain. Highs on Tuesday will be warmer, in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
Tuesday Night through Thursday Night...
During this time, we will remain under northwesterly flow, though it
should remain mostly quiet with high pressure at the surface. We
will see a gradually warming trend with highs in the upper 50s and
low 60s and low temperatures in the 30s.
Thursday night, surface high pressure will begin to shift off to the
east and a LLJ will usher in moisture into the low levels. Aloft,
troughing to the northeast will just brush the lower Ohio Valley and
bring some weak vorticity. This could bring some showers and
possibly some elevated convection.
Friday through Sunday...
Ridging will move over the region and high pressure will continue to
shift off to the east. These features will keep conditions quiet
through Saturday, before a cold front moves through on Sunday night.
This cold front will bring the next chance for showers and storms.
Temperatures will continue to warm into the 60s and possibly the low
70s on Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
The back edge of the low clouds and snow showers is clearing out of
LEX/BWG/RGA at this hour, with high confidence in VFR conditions
returning to all forecast sites by 02Z. For the rest of tonight,
winds should gradually back from W/NW to SW by sunrise Tuesday as
high pressure moves south of the region. Another weak disturbance
moving through the region on Tuesday will bring a mid-level deck
into the region from the NW; ceilings should be at or above 10 kft
for most sites. Winds will continue to back to the S/SW by Tuesday
afternoon, becoming gusty during the late morning hours. Sustained
winds of 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt are expected during the
late morning and afternoon hours on Tuesday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...CSG
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 9:13 PM EST ...Updated Key Messages... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202511110213-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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