PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 11:30 AM CST
226
FXUS63 KPAH 061730
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1130 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front will bring chances of showers and a few
thunderstorms on Friday.
- Another chance of rain is possible Saturday evening into early
Sunday morning.
- A brief, but bitter, Arctic blast will bring the coldest
temperatures of the season by far Sunday and Monday. High
temperatures Monday may struggle to climb above 40 degrees in
some spots.
- Wind chill values of 10-20F are forecast Monday morning, and
15-25F readings are forecast Tuesday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025
Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025
Calm and clear weather is being observed this morning.
Temperatures are running in the 40s as of this discussion with
clear skies. Surface high pressure is sliding by to the north on
its way into the Appalachians tonight. We will have another day
of dry weather today with high temperatures in the 60s to lower
70s.
Shortwave troughing develops across the plains and moves east
into the Great Lakes by Friday spreading height falls across the
region. A surface low moving across the Great Lakes will drag a
cold front through the region on Friday with chances of showers
and a few thunderstorms along the front. SPC maintains a
marginal risk across eastern portions of the area, with a slight
risk to our east. Guidance continues to suggest only a few
hundred joules of SBCAPE developing ahead of the front with
greater values east of the area. The current thinking is that
the threat for strong storms continues to be low. Should
stronger instability develop then the threat for strong storms
would increase given strong mid level flow overhead. Will
continue to monitor trends.
Behind the front we see a short period of dry weather before
another disturbance is advertised to move across the region
supporting chances for showers. QPF amounts from this system
Saturday night into early Sunday look light. Late Sunday into
early next week, a pattern change brings an Arctic airmass
sending temperatures well below normal. High temperatures Sunday
into Monday will struggle to get into the 40s with lows dipping
into the 20s bringing a hard freeze to the region. Wind chills
Monday morning are expected to be in the 10-20 degree range, and
15-25 degrees Tuesday morning. By midweek, the surface high
moves into the southeast which results in increasing southerly
flow and moderating temperatures to end the forecast period.
Highs will rise back into the 50s on Tuesday and near 60 by
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025
An approaching cold front will lead to increasing mid and high
clouds tonight. The front makes passage tomorrow morning and
early afternoon. Southeast winds today will become southerly and
increase overnight before switching to westerly behind the
front tomorrow afternoon. 2kft winds increase to around 40 kts
overnight, but at the same time surface winds increase to around
10 kts, so this may preclude LLWS concerns. Can't rule out a
light shower with the frontal passage tomorrow, but chances
are too low to include mention. Also, there are hints at a
brief period of MVFR cigs in KEVV/KOWB tomorrow morning, but
again confidence is fairly low.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...SP
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 11:30 AM CST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202511061730-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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