LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 4:11 AM EST
393
FXUS63 KLMK 070911
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
411 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Today a cold front brings showers and a few potentially strong
storms to south central Kentucky.
* Another cold front Saturday night into Sunday will bring cold
temperatures and a chance for scattered snow showers. Little to
no accumulation expected given warm ground/road temps.
* Cold mornings in the 20s to upper teens Monday and Tuesday will
be followed by dry and milder weather by mid to late week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 411 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025
Today, an upper trough begins pushing a shortwave and co-located
cold front, extending from a surface low skirting the northern Great
Lakes, southeast through the Midwest and Ozarks while approaching
southern Indiana and central Kentucky from the northwest. Ahead of
the front, southwest winds around 10 to 20 mph and gusting to 30 to
35 mph will lift dew points currently in the 20s and 30s into the
mid 50s to around 60 as temperatures reach into the mid 60s to near
70 under cloudy skies.
Early in the day, a scattered area of light precipitation ahead of
the front is expected to work east across southern Indiana and
central Kentucky, but as we head into the afternoon hours, scattered
convection is expected to develop ahead of the front from a line
between Lexington and Bowling Green with most of the activity
expected closer to Bowling Green. This line is expected to develop
south into Tennessee and across south central Kentucky as it moves
towards the east and exits our Clinton County around 01z or so.
Instability now looks even weaker than it did yesterday. MLCAPE
values are fairly low for most of the convection, but a few of the
trailing storms near the front in far southern Kentucky could near
700 J/kg, but with lapse rates under around 6.5 C/km. Most of the
instability in today's data remains behind the line away from the
precipitation. Deep layer shear continues to be the best parameter,
but even it has dropped with deep layer values between 45-50 knots.
There is noticeable warm air advection in the 850 mb level which is
hurting low level instability as well. This could lead to elevated
storms at times with higher LCLs. Hodographs look less concerning as
well. Chances for severe weather continue to fall.
SPC continues the Slight risk across parts of south central Kentucky
because of the hail risk. Their reasoning is deep layer shear could
help promote rotating updrafts, leading to larger hail growth.
Tonight, behind the cold front, don't expect to see a big wind shift
to the northwest as winds remain out of the west-southwest. By
Saturday morning, winds will have eased to almost calm and lows will
be in the upper 30s to around 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 411 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025
By Saturday morning, fairly zonal flow will be over the Lower
Ohio Valley as the area sits at the bottom of a large upper trough
covering most of the CONUS, and at the surface being between
systems, skies remain mostly sunny with a few high level clouds in
the area. Highs are expected to range from the mid 60s to low 70s.
Saturday night, a surface low will get carried by an amplifying
upper trough through central Indiana. Trailing from the low will be
a north to south oriented cold front that will push east through the
CWA. Behind the front, strong cold air advection, ahead of a surface
high centered over western North Dakota, will bring much cooler
temperatures for the following couple of days. Highs on Sunday are
held to the mid 40s to low 50s, but on Monday, highs range from the
mid 30s to near 40. Sunday and Monday night lows fall into the 20s
with a few places maybe seeing the upper teens.
There are some possible chances for show during this cold snap, but
the current forecast is probably a little too optimistic. Model
agreement isn't that great during this period from Sunday night into
Monday. The Euro and SREF are showing snow showers diving south over
Indiana while many other models keep us fairly dry. If we do end up
with some light snow showers, the ground is beginning this period
fairly warm, so expecting a lot of melting and minimal problems.
By Tuesday, upper ridging and surface high pressure return to the
region. This leads to clearer skies and WAA lifting temperatures
back into the 50s and 60s by Wednesday and lasting through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025
The forecast remains on track. As a cold front advances towards the
region tonight, LLWS is expected to continue over most TAF sites for
most of the night until diurnal warming. At that point, winds will
make it to the surface, increasing gusts to near 25 knots. As the
front nears, light rain showers are expected to develop over the
Lower Ohio Valley. A line of convection is expected to develop later
in the afternoon ahead of the front. Ceilings are expected to drop
into MVFR levels. Ceilings will quickly improve behind the front.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 4:11 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202511070911-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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