IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 10:05 PM EDT
972
FXUS63 KIWX 020205
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1005 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slight chance of a light shower along the Lake Michigan
shoreline into this evening.
- Quiet weather is expected through much of next week with
seasonable temperatures and mainly dry conditions through
Thursday.
- Additional chances for showers are possible Friday into early
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025
2 systems remain the initial focus. The first is a closed upper low
currently in southeastern IA with the second, a sfc trough and
evolving meso-low on the northeast fringe of the aformentioned upper
low. Persistent bands of lake enhanced rain showers were associated
with the weaker meso-low over central Lk MI as well as extending W
and E into SW Wisconsin and to a lesser extent near Holland, MI. The
trough axis across WI will shift slowly south and east through the
afternoon and evening with the mesolow dropping slowly south. As
this occurs, the stronger upper low (oriented SW-NE) will halt the
SE progress and also allow any precip to line up in a similar SW-NE
fashion, most likely holding just NW of the area. As a result, have
continued the trend to lower pops further and confine to near the
lakeshore areas of Lk MI into this evening.
The deeper upper low will continue SE, reaching SE Georgia Monday
afternoon. As it does, it will further disrupt any moisture influx
potential for the upcoming week as a series of additional waves move
through W/NW oriented upper flow late Sun into Mon and again
Wednesday. Ahead of each wave, modest WAA will occur with highs into
the mid 50s to possibly lower 60s. The sfc reflection and any
associated minimal rain chances should remain north of the forecast
area with model blend slowly removing pops (now dry Monday morning
with slgt chc to chc pops NW late Sun Night). Guidance
continues to be overdone on extent of low end pops for the
Wednesday system, with a good likelihood of a continued
reduction in pops in the coming days.
Additional, somewhat stronger troughs are expected into the weekend
and early next week with models exhibiting the typical variations in
strength, timing and degree of moisture return (especially late
Thur night into Fri). As a result, the remainder of the
forecast will be riddled with chc pops (maybe some pockets of
slightly higher pops at times) that will essentially be left
untouched for now.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025
A trough is located across the Mississippi Valley and that
transitions easward through this TAF period. An upper low within the
trough and its trailing vorticity slowly slides southeastward over
the next 24 hours. Lake effect rain continues this evening north of
SBN and that appears to stay just northwest of that area overnight.
The closest it has the potential to get is NW St Joseph county IN up
to 6z tonight. As a result of this evolution, dry air keeps the taf
sites in VFR through the period. Light southwest winds this evening
back slightly towards south-southwesterly with sustained winds
edging towards 10 kts during peak heating late afternoon.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Roller
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 10:05 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202511020205-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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