JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 12:27 PM EST
290
FXUS63 KJKL 041727
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1227 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- It will be very warm and windy on Wednesday, with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s and wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph.
- A soaking rain is expected Friday afternoon and Friday night.
Gusty winds and a few thunderstorms are also possible.
- The coldest air of the season so far arrives this weekend.
Temperatures will tumble on Sunday, with the first snowflakes of
the season possible?
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
Just a quick little update to clean up morning fog wording and
incorporate the latest surface observations. Morning text and
radio products have been updated to reflect the changes. Grids
have been saved and sent.
UPDATE Issued at 738 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
The sun is rising across a chilly eastern Kentucky -- temperatures
are bottoming out in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Fog is extensive
in the mainstem river valleys and locally dense in some locations.
This should lift and dissipate by 9 to 10 AM, revealing a fair
and seasonable early November day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 425 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
A cool and quiet early November morning is unfolding across the
eastern Kentucky Coalfields. Temperatures range from the low 30s
in the coldest valleys to the lower 40s on ridges. Tentacles of
fog extend through the mainstem river valleys. This is due to an
approximately 1028 mb surface high pressure system over the Middle
Tennessee Valley, displaced east under a broad 500 hPa ridge over
the Central US. The next trough is coming ashore the Pacific Northwest.
Through the short term, high pressure will shift east to off the
Atlantic Seaboard while upper-level ridging subsides ahead of
troughing riding over the northern Rockies and then diving
southeast through the Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and
Northeast US. Ahead of that trough, low pressure will develop in
the lee of the Rockies and pass through the northern CONUS to over
New England by Wednesday evening. Ahead of this system, a warm
front will lift across the Lower Ohio Valley this evening and will
be followed by the trailing cold front dropping south of the Ohio
River by Wednesday evening. The return flow in the warm sector
will remain quite dry, keeping the threat of rain at bay, but it
will still become quite mild as 850 mb temperatures rebound to
near 10C on Wednesday afternoon. GFS BUFKIT mixed-layer momentum
transfer of 25 to 30 kts in the afternoon supports breezy
conditions.
In sensible weather terms, look for any fog and frost this
morning to fade under mostly to partly sunny skies. It will be
seasonably mild with high temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.
Tonight will be mostly clear with lows generally in the 40s.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, fair weather continues with plenty of
sunshine and temperatures peaking in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Southwesterly winds will become gusty, reaching 25 to 35 mph at
times. Low and mid-level clouds will increase from the northwest
late.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 546 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
The long-term period opens Wednesday evening with 500 hPa
troughing over the Northeast CONUS and Eastern Canada. High
amplitude ridging is noted upstream from the Central Plains
northward into the northwestern Canadian Arctic. Another trough is
rotating over the North Pacific. At the surface, a cold front
will be found just south of the Ohio River, while a ridge of high
pressure is upstream across the Lower Missouri Valley/Upper
Midwest.
That front will sink south of our region Wednesday night as
ridging, both aloft and at the surface, shifts east, crossing the
Commonwealth on Thursday and Thursday night while subsiding ahead
of energy ejecting east over the Rockies from the North Pacific
Low. This energy will foster new cyclogenesis over Alberta,
tracking it eastward to Lake Superior by Friday morning. In the
meantime, a deep low sinks south from the Canadian Arctic to over
Hudson Bay, drawing the surface low into Quebec while the North
Pacific energy dives southeast across the Ohio Valley on Friday
night. Return flow will ramp up again across our region on Friday
ahead of this system's trailing cold front. Similar to Wednesday,
GFS BUFKIT mixed-layer momentum transfer suggests southwesterly
wind gusts in the 25 to 35 kt range. Rain chances ramp up ahead of
the boundary Friday afternoon and peak Friday night with its
passage. At this time, a soaking rain appears likely, with a 30 to
50 percent chance of at least 0.50 inches and an 80+ percent
chance of 0.25 inches, as per LREF. Guidance does continue to
suggest sufficient instability for some thunder, but joint LREF
probabilities for MUCAPE >500 J/kg and surface to 500 hPa bulk
wind shear >30 kts under 30 percent suggest the potential for any
stronger convection is limited at this time.
A second strong area of 500 hPa vorticity from the North Pacific
low dives southeast to over the Ohio Valley Saturday night and
begins to phase with the Canadian upper low, forming a deep trough
over our region. This will lead to a new surface low tracking further
south through the northern CONUS to the eastern Great Lakes by
daybreak Sunday. A couple of potent cold fronts on the back side
of this low will unleash our coldest air mass of the season so far
heading into early next week, as 850 hPa temperatures fall to -5C
or colder in the Sunday to Monday timeframe. Additional
disturbances passing through the upper-level trough could set the
stage for the first flakes of the season. However, limited
overall moisture and antecedent warm conditions suggest any
snowfall would be a novelty and of little impact, except perhaps
over the highest peaks near the Virginia/Kentucky border (i.e.,
Big Black Mountain). This activity will dry up as cold Canadian
high pressure follows for the new work week.
In sensible terms, look for passing clouds on Wednesday night to
yield to clearing skies and calming winds. It will be cooler with
lows from the lower 30s in northern valleys to the lower 40s on
ridges. Fair and quiet weather follows for Thursday with highs in
the upper 50s to mid-60s and lows Thursday night in the mid-30s to
mid-40s. Clouds increase Friday, along with an increasingly gusty
southerly breeze. A few showers or even a thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out late in the day. It will again be mild with highs in the
65F to 70F range. Showers and possible thunderstorms will pass
Friday night, making way for a clearer and cooler Saturday with
partly to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the lower to
mid-60s. Precipitation chances return Saturday night and Sunday
as temperatures tumble, perhaps turning cold enough for some
flakes. By Monday, highs are forecast to only reach the low to
mid-40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
High pressure will keep VFR TAFs over the area through the TAF
window. However, overnight LLWS is forecast to develop as an
upper-level wave dives southeast towards the area. LLWS is
forecast to develop the earliest at KSYM around 06Z with the
remaining sites having it a couple hours later. Once surface winds
increase and turbulent mixing occurs, LLWS will be negated.
Sustained surface winds out of the southwest around 15 knots with
gusts from 20 to 25 knots can be expected through the end of the
TAF window.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...VORST
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 12:27 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202511041727-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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