PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 1:07 AM EST
983
FXUS61 KPBZ 050607
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
107 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty wind and afternoon showers are expected today with the
approach and passage of a cold front. Generally dry weather
returns Thursday under high pressure, before a series of
crossing cold fronts returns unsettled weather through early
next week. Much colder temperatures and snow chances are also
expected Sunday night through the early part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Increasing wind gusts today
- Shower chances return this afternoon
---------------------------------------------------------------
A ridge of high pressure will continue to slide east of the
area this morning, as a shortwave trough begins to approach
from the Upper Midwest. A deepening surface low is progged to
track from the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes through
southern Ontario, to northern NY this afternoon, as it pulls a
cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
The best upper level and jet support for ascent is expected to
be across areas north of I-80, where the highest POPs are
forecast, though a broken line of showers is expected further
south as the front crosses. Mean ML CAPE is progged to be less
than 100 j/kg, so thunder potential remains minimal.
A strong wind field will develop in advance of the deepening
low today with a tightening surface pressure gradient and an
approaching jet. Warm advection should keep wind gusts below
advisory criteria for most of the area, outside of Tucker
county WV where a Wind Advisory is in effect for the higher
terrain. It will still be windy elsewhere, with gusts from
30-40mph expected. Showers are expected to develop along and
ahead of the front later this afternoon into early evening.
Any stronger showers could mix down locally higher wind gusts,
which should be short lived and confined to the showers. Will
mention this potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. The
Storm Prediction Center maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1 out
of 5) for damaging convective wind gusts mainly for areas near
and north of I-80, where the greatest potential of strongest
winds mixing down exists. Warm advection in advance of the
approaching front should result in high temperatures around 10
degrees above seasonable levels.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain chances end this evening
- Gusty wind diminishing tonight
- Rain returns Friday
----------------------------------------------------------------
The front will quickly exit the region this evening, with
showers ending. A few lingering showers are possible overnight
north of I-80 with cold NW flow off of the lakes. Surface high
pressure is expected to build across the Upper Ohio Valley
region on Thursday, briefly returning dry weather to the area.
Temperatures at 850mb are progged to drop to around -4 deg C,
which should result in highs around 5 degrees below average.
Clouds should begin to increase late Thursday night in warm
advection ahead of the next shortwave trough and surface cold
front approaching from the Midwest. Escalating rain chances are
expected through the day Friday with increasing moisture and
ascent in southwest flow ahead of the trough.
Rain is expected to continue into Friday night as the initial
shortwave and surface cold front complete their passage. A
gradual decrease in POPs is expected overnight, through another
reinforcing shortwave will maintain at least chance POPs into
Saturday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
- Rain Sunday, changing to snow by Monday morning
- Much colder with continued snow chances into Tuesday
- Potential for some snow accumulation especially north of I-80
and in the ridges
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The pattern is expected to become amplified through the
weekend, as a deepening longwave trough digs across the eastern
CONUS. Saturday is expected to be the driest and warmest of the
extended period, through some light rain will be possible in
the morning with the passage of a weak trough.
Rain is likely to develop Saturday night and Sunday as the
deepening trough approaches. At the same time, a surface low
and cold front are progged to track across the Upper Ohio
Valley region. Cold advection behind this front should result
in rain changing to snow Sunday night, with mainly snow by
Monday, as the ensemble mean 850mb temperature is progged at -8
to -9 deg C. Areas of snow are expected to continue Monday and
Monday night under the longwave trough, with some lake and
terrain enhancement likely. Current NBM probabilities keep the
best potential for any accumulation snow north of I-80 and in
the ridges, though the details will continue to be monitored as
next week approaches.
A noticeable drop in temperature is expected by next week, with
daytime readings 15 to 20 degrees below average.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for most of the
area. Mid-level clouds are expected to move in this afternoon
as the chance for rain increases in northwestern Pennsylvania
(mainly near and north of PIT). Even in showers, aside from a
brief visibility reduction the expectation is still for VFR
conditions to prevail. The exception, as per usual, will be FKL
and DUJ which are most likely to have ceilings drop to MVFR.
A 35-45 kt 850mb jet could return LLWS concerns this morning
before SFC gusts pick up around 15z, but given sporadic and
short-lived nature of impacts it was not included in TAFs at
this time. Gusty conditions are expected at all area terminals
this afternoon, with southwesterly sustained winds between
15-25 knots and frequent gusts to 30-35 knots. Winds veer to
westerly and then northwesterly this evening with the passage of
a cold front, before gradually subsiding overnight into early
Thursday morning.
.OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions prevail and winds begin to ease as we head into
the day Thursday. The favorable weather will be short-lived as
another low pressure system moves into the area on Friday.
Guidance continues to suggest a 50-70% chance for MVFR ceilings
across the entire area with the Friday system, and a 20-40%
chance for IFR ceilings. Breezy conditions also return with the
Friday system, as ensembles show a 40-60% chance for peak gusts
exceeding 30 knots across much of the area.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Thursday
for WVZ514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Cermak/Lupo
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 1:07 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202511050607-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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