LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 9:57 PM EST
140
FXUS63 KLMK 050257
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
957 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Breezy and warm conditions are expected on Wednesday. Wind gusts
of 20 to 30 mph, with sporadic gusts up to 35 mph, are expected.
* The next chance of rain will come Friday as a cold front brings
showers and possibly a few strong thunderstorms to the area.
* Another cold front late this weekend could bring highs in the 40s
early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025
Evening satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the region
with just some high clouds moving across the area. Temperatures
were in the lower 40s out in the rural areas and more
protected/sheltered regions. On the ridges and in the urban areas,
temps were still in the mid 50s.
For the overnight hours, light southeast winds are expected to shift
more to the south and eventually the southwest by late tonight.
Temps will not fall off all that much due to the increased winds
within the boundary layer.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 355 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025
This afternoon, sfc high pressure is centered over the southern
Appalachians with low pressure developing over the northern Plains.
The upper-level pattern is fairly zonal across North America, but is
expected to amplify tonight into tomorrow as a couple upper-level
and sfc disturbance moves across the northern US. While the sfc low
is expected to traverse the upper Great Lakes, a trailing cold front
will approach and cross the Ohio Valley tomorrow.
Tonight, as the sfc pressure gradient tightens due to falling
pressures to the north and west of the area, light south winds
should continue overnight, on the order of 5 to 10 mph. As a result
of more well-mixed conditions tonight, temperatures will be
noticeably milder overnight with fog development being unlikely,
even in the typically foggy areas. Lows are expected to fall to
around 50 degrees in the warmer urban centers, with cooler valleys
(especially across east-central and southeast KY) expected to fall
into the low-to-mid 40s.
Tomorrow should be a warm and breezy day across the area, with
temperatures warming into the upper 60s and low 70s across southern
IN and central KY. While there will be tepid moisture advection
ahead of the front, PW values are only expected to increase to
around 0.75" immediately ahead of the front, and soundings suggest
that this will manifest as scattered mid- and upper-level clouds.
What will be more noteworthy tomorrow will be the stronger SW wind
gusts, with BUFKIT momentum transfer progs showing the potential for
a few 25+ kt gusts, especially along and north of I-64 tomorrow
afternoon. On average, sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph looks like a
pretty good bet, with wind gusts generally around 20 to 30 mph, with
sporadic 30+ mph gusts.
Winds will continue to veer Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night
as the cold front finally sweeps through the region. This should
allow for modest cold advection to begin, with winds slacking
Wednesday night as high pressure begins to move into the area once
again. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures should fall into the
mid-to-upper 30s and low 40s Thursday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 355 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025
Thursday - Thursday Night...
The extended forecast period should start out with dry weather and
seasonable temperatures on Thursday as high pressure starts the day
over the Ohio Valley. The upper-level pattern will remain fairly
zonal through the day on Thursday, with low amplitude ridging moving
across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. While weak warm advection
should begin Thursday evening into Thursday night, high temperatures
should be cooler than tomorrow, ranging from the upper 50s across
the northeast CWA to the mid 60s along the TN border.
Thursday night, an upper-level shortwave will begin to amplify over
the north central US, sinking across the Midwest as we head into
Friday morning. Low-level response to falling heights aloft will
lead to a strengthening southwesterly LLJ, increasing moisture and
bringing warmer air into the region. At this time, Thursday night
into early Friday morning is expected to remain dry, though clouds
should increase from NW to SE. Low temperatures will be considerably
milder Thursday night, with most locations falling into the 40s.
Friday - Friday Night...
The main system of interest in the long term arrives during the day
on Friday as a cold front associated with the aforementioned
shortwave pushes from west to east across the region. Moisture
advection Thursday night into Friday morning should result in a
plume of sfc dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s and PWATs of
1.1-1.3" just ahead of the cold front. The combination of moisture
and forcing from the cold front should lead to a band of rain
showers developing in the vicinity of the front during the day on
Friday. There continues to be some timing differences between the
ECMWF, which has precipitation moving through the area earlier in
the day, and the GFS, which has precipitation moving through later
in the afternoon and evening on Friday.
As previous discussion and the SPC extended outlook have noted,
there is a low, but non-zero chance for a few gusty thunderstorms on
Friday, some of which could be strong to severe. Instability will be
meager, on the order of 300-500 J/kg, and sounding profiles suggest
that instability will be spread throughout a relatively deep layer
(a.k.a. a "tall, skinny CAPE" profile). On the other hand, strong
flow aloft will support seasonably strong deep layer shear, on the
order of 50 kt. While the low-level wind profiles are fairly
veered/unidirectional, there is enough curvature in the hodograph to
feature a conditional low tornado threat, in addition to strong
straight-line winds. In short, severe weather still looks unlikely
on Friday, but a conditional threat exists if sufficient sfc-based
instability is realized.
Outside of the storm potential, gusty gradient winds are likely
during the day on Friday. While uncertainties surrounding cloud
cover and low-level lapse rates abound, it is likely that widespread
wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be observed, with peak gusts of 35
to 45 mph possible.
The main line of precipitation associated with the cold front should
clear to the east of the region by Friday night, with winds
gradually dissipating by Saturday morning.
Saturday - Monday Night...
For the weekend into early next week, longwave troughing will settle
across the eastern CONUS as ridging builds along the west coast.
Within the base of the broader upper trough, several shortwaves will
pivot across the region, leading to a somewhat unsettled pattern.
After a mostly dry day on Saturday, medium-range guidance has
converged on a disturbance swinging across the region Saturday night
into Sunday morning. While precipitation amounts are expected to be
light, this system will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air for the
end of the weekend into early next week. Strong cold advection
Sunday into Sunday night will cause temperatures to struggle to warm
into the upper 40s and 50s on Sunday before falling into the 30s
(possibly upper 20s) Sunday night. At this point, there is
considerable disagreement surrounding an additional wave which could
bring a chance for rain, and possibly mixed rain and snow showers,
Sunday night into Monday morning. The GFS and its ensembles is
farther to the east with this disturbance, keeping the best
chance of precipitation over the Appalachians. On the other
hand, the deterministic ECMWF and associated ensembles brings
these wintry showers across our area. Since precipitation
amounts should be light and temperatures will be marginal, this
event, if it is borne out, doesn't look all that impactful, but
is something worth watching.
Once the trough reaches its peak amplitude next Monday, temperatures
should gradually begin to moderate as we head into the middle of
next week. The coldest air so far this year should keep highs in the
low 40s on Monday, with widespread lows in the 20s possible Monday
night. Drier weather is expected by Monday afternoon, continuing
into next Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025
VFR conditions are expected during the upcoming TAF period. Main
concern overnight will be an approaching from the northwest. A LLJ
will spread over the region resulting in in LLWS after 05/06Z and
continuing into mid-morning Wednesday.
Winds will gradually increase and veer to the SSW late tonight.
Winds will become gusty late tomorrow morning, with 20-30 kt gusts
expected by the end of the current forecast period.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...MJ
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 9:57 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202511050257-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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