ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 7:12 PM EDT
372
FXUS61 KILN 012312
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
712 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will drop southeast across the region
over the weekend. This will lead to the potential for some light
rain, primarily Saturday night into Sunday morning. Dry conditions
are expected next week as high pressure settles in.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level low pressure system evident on WV imagery over
southeast IA late this morning will drift slowly south across the
mid Mississippi Valley tonight. As it does, a weak surface
reflection will develop off to our southwest overnight. In response
to this, some light southwest low level flow will develop through
the overnight hours with some developing weak isentropic lift
spreading into our area from the southwest. As a result, expect to
see some light rain overspread out southern areas as we progress
through the night. The highest pops will be along and south of the
Ohio River where we will have likely to categorical pops. We will
then decrease pops fairly quickly to the north, with just a slight
chance across central portions of our area. Lows tonight will range
from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low will traverse southeast across the Tennessee
Valley through the day on Sunday. In association with this, a weak
inverted surface trough will nose up into the mid Ohio Valley early
Sunday before shifting off to the southeast through the afternoon.
As a result, expect to see some light rain activity persist into
Sunday morning across our south before tapering off as we head into
the afternoon.
Some mid level ridging will begin to build into the region behind
the upper level low later Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night,
leading to a decreasing cloud trend. Highs on Sunday will be in the
mid to upper 50s with lows Sunday night in the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fairly uneventful forecast across the long term period as the jet
stream becomes more zonal across the region. High pressure builds
over the area Monday and Tuesday, and high temperatures are closer to
seasonal normals. A chance for mid 60s arrives on Wednesday ahead of
an approaching cold front.
Low pressure passes to the north Wednesday night, and the associated
cold front moves through with limited moisture. For now, rainfall
chances are quite low so the forecast is dry with this particular
system. The cold front does usher in a slightly cooler air mass into
Thursday, reducing high temperatures back to seasonal normals.
To wrap up the work week, another system is expected to move into
the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Depending on the timing, some warmth
(mid 60s) may spread northward ahead of the system before a cold
front moves through. At this time, this system looks like the next
best chance for more widespread rainfall chances.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level low pressure system evident on WV imagery over
the Mid MS River Valley will dig slowly south into the western TN
Valley by Sunday morning. Weak isentropic lift will develop with
clouds spreading into the area from the southwest. This will lead to
a chance for light rain across the southern TAF sites overnight into
early Sunday. The best chance for rain will be along and south of
the Ohio River so expect the rain to mainly affect KCVG/KLUK where
ceilings and visibilities will drop into MVFR category overnight.
These conditions will linger into Sunday morning before trending
back into VFR through late morning and afternoon.
Farther north, KILN looks to be on the northern edge of the pcpn so
will only allow for a prob30 for rain and MVFR conditions for a few
hours late tonight. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail at
the remaining TAF sites.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 7:12 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202511012312-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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