CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 2:10 AM EST
775
FXUS61 KCLE 040710
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
210 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into the Ohio Valley today. A
warm front will lift across the region late tonight into
Wednesday. A cold front will sweep across the area late on
Wednesday as low pressure moves east through the central Great
Lakes. Additional weather systems will move across the area
late this week into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The mid and upper level weather pattern is currently a fast
zonal flow at this time. High pressure is centered over the
Lower Ohio Valley this morning and will dominate our weather
today. This high pressure system will continue to track
eastward into the Mid-Atlantic region by tonight. Mostly sunny
to partly cloudy skies are expected today with some high clouds
moving in late. High temperatures will be seasonable this
afternoon in the middle to upper 50s.
Another fast moving shortwave trough will quickly move across
the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. A surface low will develop
near the central Great Lakes on Wednesday and deepen as it track
east across southern Ontario. A trailing cold front will sweep
through the area late Wednesday. Moisture will limited with this
frontal passage but there will be scattered rain showers
possible for northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Given
the forecasted dynamics and low level wind field of this
deepening storm system on Wednesday, some of the rain showers
or isolated thunderstorm could bring down some stronger winds
up to 50 mph. SPC has highlighted far NEOH and NWPA in a day 2
marginal outlook for a 5 percent wind threat. Rainfall amounts
will be light, around a tenth on an inch or less. There may be a
brief window of lake enhanced rain showers for the Snowbelt
Wednesday evening. Southwest winds ahead of the cold front will
increase 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Behind the cold
front with will switch from the northwest 15 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph possible, especially closer to the lakeshore.
High temperatures will climb into the lower and middle 60s
prior to the frontal passage Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure from the Midwest will build into the Ohio Valley
Wednesday night and Thursday. Fair weather conditions are
expected on Thursday with mostly sunny skies. High temperatures
will be cooler ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Friday
will be the start of a weather pattern change that will continue
into the weekend. The upper level pattern will start to
transition from a zonal flow to a large upper level trough
developing over the Great Lakes and eastern U.S. A shortwave
trough will quickly move eastward across the Upper Great Lakes
on Friday. A low pressure system will track eastward north of
the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front sweeping through the
area late on Friday. This system will have more moisture to work
with. Widespread showers will become likely on Friday. There
will also be a little elevated instability Friday afternoon for
some isolated thunder possible. Rainfall amounts will generally
be a quarter to a third of an inch possible. High temperatures
on Friday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The weather pattern for this weekend into early next week looks
to be unsettled and turning colder. A large and deep upper level
trough will develop Saturday into Sunday over the Great Lakes
and eastern U.S. There may be some lingering lake effect or
enhanced rain showers across the Snowbelt on Saturday. The rest
of the area will have a break in between weather systems on
Saturday but it will be cooler with highs in the lower 50s.
A stronger shortwave trough will round the base of the larger
upper level trough Saturday night into Sunday. A developing
surface low will track through the Ohio Valley Saturday night
and Sunday. Another round of rain showers will become likely
Saturday night and Sunday. A cold front will sweep across the
region late on Sunday. A colder airmass will move in across the
Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday. Rain
showers will transition to a rain/snow mix and/or change over to
snow showers for most of the area Sunday night. As colder air
moves over the relatively warmer lake water, there will be the
potential for lake effect or lake enhanced snow showers Sunday
night through Monday night for both the primary and secondary
Snowbelt areas. It is too early to mention any specifics on
timing and amounts at this time. There is some forecast
uncertainty on the overall strength and placement of the upper
level trough as well as the direction of the low level flow for
the potential lake effect. But it is looking likely that the
first flakes of the season are on the way!
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure begins to build in tonight leading to quiet
weather and VFR conditions through the TAF period. All
terminals will stay clear overnight with some mid level clouds
moving in from the west tomorrow morning with no impacts
expected.
A few terminals across the region are still gusting around
15-20 knots, mainly across northeastern Ohio and northwestern
Pennsylvania. A couple of terminals along the lake shore to
include KERI are gusting a bit stronger up around 30 knots.
These should start to taper off over the next couple of hours.
Overnight, winds will be between 7-12 knots out of the west-
southwest across most terminals. Towards to the end of the TAF
period, winds will start to shift out of the south due to the
high pressure shifting further off to the east and a warm front
moving south to north across the region.
Outlook...Non-VFR in showers and gusty winds are possible
Wednesday and Wednesday night and again on Friday. Another
system will likely bring non-VFR conditions for the weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front has crossed two-thirds of the lake so far this
afternoon and will continue departing to the east this evening.
Winds are shifting to the west with the cold frontal passage and
winds in the 20 to 30 kt range are expected through the night
with brief gale force winds continuing for the eastern basin.
High pressure building from the southwest tonight into Tuesday
will relax flow and there should be a brief period without any
marine headlines with the weaker offshore flow across the
region. Low pressure with a cold front will enter for Wednesday
and winds on the lake will increase and shift to the west.
Another round of small craft headlines will be needed for the
lake for Wednesday and Wednesday Night. High pressure will
return for Thursday and offshore flow will return to the lake
and should allow for another 24 hour period without marine
headlines. A strong low pressure system is still on track to
impact the Great Lakes region for Friday into this weekend and
additional periods of winds over 20 kts are likely with
additional marine headlines needed.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ145.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ146-
147.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ148-
149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...23
MARINE...Sefcovic
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 2:10 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202511040710-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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