JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 4:11 AM EST
474
FXUS63 KJKL 030911
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
411 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Clearing skies will set the stage for extensive fog development
tonight, especially in the river valleys. Lows will fall into
the lower 30s in the coldest valleys.
- Dry and fair weather is expected Monday through Thursday, with a
warming trend bringing highs into the mid-60s and lower-70s by
Wednesday.
- Rain chances return the forecast on Friday and persist into
Friday evening. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out in this
time frame.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
Widespread low stratus and fog are found across eastern Kentucky
this morning. The densest fog is generally along and west of the
Escarpment and over the ridgetops further south and east. This
warranted the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory for portions of the
area earlier this morning, effective until 7 AM EDT (it may be
extended if needed). Because of the extensive fog and low stratus,
temperatures have held up in the low to mid 40s across nearly all
of the area. This situation has been fostered by high pressure
building eastward from the Lower Mississippi Valley, setting the
stage for efficient radiative cooling coincident with left-over
moisture from yesterday's rainfall. Looking aloft, significant
height rises are ongoing as yesterday's upper low drifts east of
the Appalachians and broad ridging moves in from the over the
Rockies. There is also a notable 500hPa trough carving its way
into the Great Lakes as well.
In the short-term, the ridging will gradually translate eastward,
through it will continue to flatten as it does so. The trough to
our north digs as drops into the Northeast US, sending a
moisture-starved cold frontal boundary sagging into the Ohio
Valley tonight where it will fizzle. Aside from that, high
pressure crests over the Commonwealth on Tuesday with drier air
seeping southward at the low-levels.
In sensible weather terms, look for low stratus and/or dense fog
to persist through sunrise, then gradually lift/dissipate mid
morning. It will then be mostly sunny and seasonably cool with
highs in the mid and upper 50s. For tonight, mostly clear skies
reign, fog redevelops but it more restricted to the mainstem river
valleys. It is cooler with lows in the 30s, a few upper 20s in
the coldest spots. Mostly sunny skies follow for Tuesday as well
with slight warmer highs in the lower to mid 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 610 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025
Progressive, quasi-zonal flow looks to set up aloft this week, with
the area's sensible weather oscillating between the influence of low-
amplitude ridging/troughing as a result. When the period opens on
Tuesday morning, flattened mid/upper level ridging will be building
into the area. The associated surface high will slide eastward
throughout the day, allowing any lingering river valley fog to burn
off and skies to clear. Temperatures should accordingly warm into
the 60s on Tuesday afternoon before sheltered and shaded valley
temperatures quickly cool off in the late afternoon/evening. As the
night progresses, high-level clouds are expected to spread east in
the commonwealth, but MOS guidance still depicts staunch ridge-
valley splits on Tuesday night. Expect MinTs to bottom out in the
upper 30s in the hollows of Eastern Kentucky while ridgetops and
western portions of the area remain in the 40s.
On Wednesday, the commonwealth will be positioned between a clipper-
type low in the Great Lakes and the previous day's surface high, now
over the Carolina. Surface winds will veer towards the southwest and
become gusty within the resultant warm air advection regime. As the
morning's radiational inversion mixes out on Wednesday afternoon,
winds could gust up to 25mph, and valley locations could climb into
the 70s. The latest COOP MOS guidance suggests that some of the
deeper valley sites could climb above 75 degrees in this time frame,
but confidence was not high enough to deviate that significantly
from the baseline NBM MaxT guidance. Valley highs were raised a few
degrees into the lower 70s on Wednesday afternoon, but most of the
area is forecast to see highs in the upper 60s or closer to 70
degrees proper. Skies should remain mostly clear during the daytime,
but clouds could increase overnight as a frontal boundary moves
through the forecast area. The quality/depth of moisture return out
ahead of that boundary looks rather meager, and measurable
precipitation is not expected with this first system.
Temperatures look to cool off a little bit behind that boundary's
passage on Thursday, with AM lows in the 40s and PM highs back in
the 60s. Another round of low-amplitude ridging will build into the
region in this time frame, as will a quick-passing surface high.
Expect one more day of dry and clear conditions before that high
shifts into the Mid-Atlantic states and another low pressure system
develops in the vicinity of the Great Lakes.
Thus, the area once again looks to be in a regime of southwesterly
return flow on Friday. The tight pressure gradient between the
aforementioned synoptic means that Friday's winds could gust upwards
of 30 mph, but the SW flow on Friday is forecast to be more
vertically stacked than it was on Wednesday. Models resolve
relatively deeper parent troughing with this second low pressure
system. As said troughing digs into the Lower Ohio River Valley on
Friday morning, the flow in the bottom half of the atmospheric
column will collectively become southwesterly. This alignment favors
deeper moisture return and increasing rain chances ahead of the
system's cold front. The related increase in cloud cover introduces
uncertainty into Friday's temperature forecast, and there is a
noticed increase in model spread around this timeframe. For now,
stuck with the baseline NBM data of highs in the upper 60s/near 70,
but if pockets of clear skies can emerge in the afternoon, there may
be just enough diurnal warming to to squeeze out some gusty
thunderstorms ahead of the frontal passage. Thunder currently
appears most likely in southwestern portions of the forecast area on
Friday evening, but as higher-resolution models begin to resolve
this system and a clearer consensus on FROPA timing emerges, this
could change. Interests with outdoor plans on Friday and Friday
night should continue to monitor the convective aspects of this
forecast, but confidence is high that there will be wet sensible
weather in this time frame.
Looking ahead to next weekend, there is a signal for deeper longwave
troughing to emerge over much of the Eastern CONUS. However, model
spread substantially increases on Saturday, with greater than 10
degrees difference in the 25th and 75th percentiles of the NBM and 3
to 4 standard deviations of spread in the European Ensemble MOS. As
shortwave disturbances and their associated surface systems navigate
through the mean troughing aloft into early next week, the pattern
remains active. Persistent NW flow aloft and a secondary surface
cold frontal passage at the very end of the long term forecast
period period favor the advection of a cool, continental polar
airmass into the region to start the week of November 10th. This
could yield the season's coldest temperature readings thus far, but
the significant uncertainty in the currently-avaialble ensemble data
precludes the mention of sensible weather specifics at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
Widely varying flight conditions are in place over eastern
Kentucky early this morning as high pressure becomes established
over the area. Fog has developed in many valley locales. However,
there is also an extensive amorphous stratus deck slowly expanding
across the area. The forecast details remain tricky through the
remainder of the night. Generally expect deteriorating conditions
to near or below airport minimums for up to several hours through
day break at all sites. Fog should lift and dissipate between the
12Z to 15Z period with some transient stratus or stratocu in the
MVFR range or lower for a brief time. Thereafter, VFR should
prevail. Light and variable winds will prevail through around 15Z,
before becoming west at 5 to 10KT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-083-106-108-111-112-114.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 4:11 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202511030911-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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