LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 12:37 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
440
FXUS64 KLIX 271737
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1237 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
- Areas of fog are possible again tonight into tomorrow morning,
with locally dense fog possible. Those with travel plans
during the early morning hours should be prepared for sudden
changes in visibility. Allow extra commuting time.
- A cold frontal passage Tuesday night with showers and a few
thunderstorms and breezy to windy conditions. Much cooler air
behind the front Tuesday night through the end of the week.
- Hazardous marine conditions to return beginning late Tuesday
night. A Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
Upper trough axis near the Mississippi-Alabama border this morning,
with another trough moving from the northern Rockies into the
Northern Plains. Ridging building along the West Coast. At the
surface, low pressure was south of Pensacola with a frontal boundary
well offshore of southeast Louisiana. High pressure extended from
Quebec into the Southern Plains. Low pressure over the Canadian
Prairie Provinces had a frontal boundary to another low near the
Black Hills of South Dakota.
Locally, still some low clouds over southwest Mississippi, but they
are showing some signs of breaking up. Those clouds have held
temperatures at McComb in the 60s, but elsewhere, temperatures
were mainly in the 70s, with dew points in the lower and mid 60s.
Mostly sunny skies this afternoon, with the clouds over the
northern part of the area expected to break up. Could see
redevelopment of fog around sunrise Tuesday, mainly across the
northern half of the area, especially if winds go calm.
Evening/mid shifts may need to consider a Fog Advisory if
conditions dictate.
The upper trough in the local area this morning will move
eastward to the Atlantic Coast by sunrise Wednesday. The northern
Rockies trough will dive southeastward and be near Memphis at
sunrise Wednesday. This will push a strong cold front through the
area Tuesday night. Once the clouds over southwest Mississippi
depart today, little in the way of weather impacts through the
daytime hours Tuesday. Precipitable water values briefly climb to
the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range Tuesday evening, and there might be a
3-4 hour window along the front where precipitation could occur.
Rain amounts won't be heavy, but worthy of mention. Winds are
likely to become gusty behind the front, and we could eventually
need a Wind Advisory downwind of Lake Pontchartrain, but will hold
off on that for this package, as the main concern will be after
sunrise Wednesday.
Highs mid 70s to lower 80s for most areas this afternoon and
areawide Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows mid 50s to lower 60s
tonight, then mainly in the 50s tomorrow night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
Upper trough shifts eastward to New England by Friday, with upper
flow remaining northwesterly across the local area. Another trough
passes northeast of the area on Saturday. This could bring another
cold front through the area Saturday or Saturday night, with a third
one moving through early next week. Moisture is expected to be
rather meager, and if any rain were to occur Saturday, it'd be
extremely brief and light.
Larger message for sensible weather is going to be much cooler
temperatures. Very likely that most of the CWA won't get out of the
60s on Wednesday, with the exception possibly the New Orleans metro
area, where northwest winds coming across the warmer waters of Lake
Pontchartrain (water temp 74F this morning) may allow highs in the
lower 70s. May need a wind advisory for portions of that area as
well on Wednesday as noted in the short term section, but will
hold off for one more forecast cycle. Thursday will also see highs
in the 60s across the area. These will be the coolest days our
area has seen since approximately April 7th. Temperatures will
moderate somewhat for the weekend, with highs in the lower and
middle 70s, which is actually pretty close to normal. Overnight
lows will mainly be in the 40s Thursday morning through Saturday
morning. It isn't out of the question that one or two of the
normally cooler spots could briefly dip into the upper 30s Friday
morning.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
VFR conditions in place with the exception of KMCB, where MVFR
ceilings are occurring. Those should become scattered this
afternoon. The overnight concern will be the potential for fog
development around sunrise. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible,
especially at KBTR/KMCB/KHDC/KASD/KHUM. Improvement expected around
14z Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
Brief respite from hazardous conditions today through Tuesday. A
strong cold front will move through the waters Tuesday night. Much
colder and drier air will bring an increase in northwesterly winds
late Tuesday night, with sustained winds approaching 30 knots as
early as the pre-dawn hours Wednesday morning. Likely to be a 24 to
30 hour period where frequent wind gusts to gale force will be
possible over essentially all coastal waters. Not going to get cute
with multiple start/end times, and have issued a Gale Watch from
09z Wednesday through 12z Thursday, Will likely need headlines
beyond 12z Thursday (Small Craft Advisory, most likely) through
the daytime hours Thursday, but we can deal with that in later
packages.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 55 78 50 62 / 0 10 90 10
BTR 57 82 53 65 / 0 10 80 10
ASD 55 78 52 66 / 0 0 80 10
MSY 63 81 58 69 / 0 0 70 10
GPT 58 78 55 68 / 0 0 70 10
PQL 55 78 53 69 / 0 0 60 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday morning for
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday morning for
GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 12:37 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510271737-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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