MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 1:36 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...
767
FXUS64 KMOB 281836
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
136 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 116 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
- The passage of a strong cold front midweek brings the coldest
air so far this season the latter half of the week.
- Gale condition wind gusts possible beyond 20 miles offshore
Wednesday and Wednesday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Mid level energy drops southeast out of the Plains today and carves
out a sharpening, highly amplified long-wave trough over the MS
River Valley Wednesday which advances eastward over the eastern US
Thursday. This opens the door for the rapid eastward passage of a
strong cold front Wednesday morning. Ahead of the front, there
appears to be enough environmental moisture intersecting the front
to bring about an increased chance of showers from west to east
tonight through Wednesday. Although there could be a rumble of
thunder here and there, appears the main mode looks to be showers
as short range ensembles and high resolution Convection Allowing
Models (CAM's) indicate little to no instability ahead of the
front to mention thunderstorms in the near-term forecast.
Wednesday night, the front will have swept to off the southeast
coast, bringing drier air and temperatures lowering to well below
normal as we close out the month of October.
With the expectation that clouds will be wrapping cyclonically in
from the north and northwest around the evolving, large upper level
low pressure system pivoting eastward across the TN River Valley,
highs look to only reach the lower to mid 60s inland Wednesday. The
warmer temps may be confined to right along the coast, in the
lower 70's. Lower to mid 60s for highs areawide Thursday and
Friday. Highs moderate back into the upper 60's to lower 70s
Saturday thru Monday. Lows will sink into the lower to mid 40s
across much of the area away from the coast Wednesday night. The
coldest nights are expected Thursday and Friday nights with upper
30s to lower 40s interior and mid to upper 40s coast. Cool nights
to continue into the weekend.
Rip current risk becomes moderate Wednesday/Wednesday night. Some of
the guidance during this period suggests a brief period of high risk
and will monitor later forecasts for potential upgrades. /10
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
MVFR ceilings will persist through the afternoon today with a
light northerly wind. Winds will switch to southerly tonight
ahead of another approaching cold front as ceilings remain at MVFR
to possibly IFR along the front. Scattered showers will move
across the area from west to east after midnight as the front
moves through and winds quickly turn out of the west-northwest
around 15 knots gusting to 25 knots. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Small craft advisories remain in effect for early Wednesday AM to
Noon Thursday for portions of bays and sounds and out 20 NM.
Latest gridded data suggest wind gusts in the 20 to 60 NM zones will
meet gale watch criteria (frequent gusts in excess of 34 kts)
Wednesday and Wednesday night with strong northwest winds developing
in the wake of the strong cold frontal passage. Seas building. Due
to the northwesterly fetch, highest seas ranging 8 to perhaps
around 12 feet look to be in the 20 to 60 NM zones for the
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday AM period. Highest seas 6 to
to around 8 feet out 20 NM. Offshore flow diminishes and seas
subside markedly by Friday. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 54 67 49 65 / 60 20 0 0
Pensacola 61 70 53 65 / 30 50 0 0
Destin 59 73 53 66 / 10 60 0 0
Evergreen 51 65 45 63 / 50 60 10 10
Waynesboro 49 60 46 61 / 80 20 10 0
Camden 51 62 45 60 / 70 60 10 10
Crestview 52 67 45 64 / 20 60 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to noon CDT Thursday
for GMZ630>632-650-655.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ670-
675.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to noon CDT Thursday for GMZ670-
675.
Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night
for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 1:36 PM CDT ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510281836-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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