IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 2:41 PM EDT
215
FXUS63 KIWX 271841
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
241 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably cool temperatures will persist over the next 7 days.
- A period of light rain possible Wednesday night into Thursday,
best chances south of US 24 (40-60%).
- Scattered lake enhanced rain showers possible at times Friday
into this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
Dry and seasonably cool low level easterly flow will persist through
Wednesday under an impressive high latitude blocking ridge over
southeast Canada and the northern Great Lakes. This rex
block forces an incoming pacific jet and developing upper low
southeast into the western OH/TN Valleys by Wednesday, while a
piece of a Northeast US upper low retrogrades west on its
northern fringe. 12z ensemble and deterministic model guidance
held pretty close overall to the last several runs increasing
forecast confidence in a blossoming deformation/fgen rain band
mainly passing southwest and then south of the area Tuesday
night through Wednesday night. The outlier ensemble solutions
are for lighter rain to possibly get into southern portions of
our CWA during this time with slight chance PoPs retained here.
The organizing sfc reflection after the phasing into one upper
low does eventually make its northward turn near the spine of
the Appalachians into Thursday and Thursday night with
widespread deformation rain on the backside possibly clipping
areas south of US 24 (best chances near Lima OH). Still some
wiggle room at this range for adjustments in the track and
intensity. Remaining cool with periodic chances for scattered
lake enhanced showers otherwise into Friday and the upcoming
weekend with unsettled cyclonic northwest flow locked in behind
the mid-late week system.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
Dry air resides north of an upper low moving through the Tennessee
River Valley with east winds through this TAF period. Given the
gradient between surface high pressure to the north and this low to
the south, sustained winds around expected to reside around 10 kts
this afternoon and into the evening before picking up again Tuesday.
Gusts up to around 20 kts will also be possible, especially during
peak heating. High clouds will be around north of the low to the
south, but that dry air should allow for prevailing VFR conditions
through the period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Roller
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 2:41 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510271841-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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