BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 6:56 PM EDT
697
FXUS61 KBOX 232256
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
656 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry and seasonably cool conditions through Friday then
even cooler temperatures arrive this weekend as high pressure
noses down from Quebec. Onshore flow may result in some low
clouds and a few showers by early next week. Overall lower than
normal confidence with next weeks forecast but the potential
for a coastal storm continues.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry and cool tonight with diminishing wind
Diurnal cu will diminish tonight but with upper trough over New Eng,
there will be varying amounts of cloud cover. Mainly dry weather
tonight although can't rule out a spot shower over the Islands from
ocean effect on WSW flow, and possibly a brief shower spilling into
the Berkshires this evening. Weak surface trough moves to the east
with a wind shift to W and diminishing wind. Lows will be mostly in
the upper 30s to lower 40s, with mid-upper 40s over the Cape/Islands.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Mix of clouds and Sun Fri and seasonably cool
* Cool and dry Fri night
Friday...
The upper trough and cold pool will remain across New Eng Fri. This
will lead to numerous diurnal cu developing and can't rule out an
isolated shower but overall a mostly dry day. Not much change in
temps aloft so expect similar high temps in the upper 50s to near
60, cooler higher terrain. Winds will not be much of a factor with
west winds 5-15 mph.
Friday night...
Very little change in the overall pattern. The upper trough begins
to slide to the east overnight. Diurnal cu will dissipate leading to
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Modest radiational cooling
anticipated, especially where winds fully decouple. It will be a
chilly night with lows mostly in the 30s, except low 40s along east
coastal MA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Dry & cool Sat/Sun...Lows upper 20s & 30s with highs mainly in the
50s but parts of the high terrain may only reach the upper 40s
* Cool with the risk for some unsettled weather early next week and
perhaps a stronger coastal storm by the mid-late next week
Details...
Saturday and Sunday...
Large high pressure builds eastward across Quebec and noses
southward into our region this weekend. This will bring us dry but
cool weather with slightly below normal temps for this time of year.
Low temps will mainly be in the upper 20s and 30s. High temps will
generally be in the 50s...but portions of the high terrain may only
reach the upper 40s. It does look like Sunday will be the slightly
cooler day.
Next Week...
Forecast confidence drops significantly next week as the upper air
pattern becomes somewhat chaotic... still keeping an eye out for a
potential coastal storm later next week around the Thursday/Friday
timeframe.
Early next week, surface high pressure will be slow to build over
southern New England. In response to high pressure, easterly onshore
flow should keep the Cape and Islands in the clouds with ample
chances for showers in those areas Monday and Tuesday. Precipitation
chances will be less the further west you are. Attention then shifts
to a potent piece of northern stream energy dropping southward into
the CONUS later Tuesday. Guidance indicates a complex evolution of
this feature as it moves east by the middle of the week. At the same
time, an upper-level ridge over southeast Canada may retrograde
eastward and establish a Rex Block over the eastern CONUS. That's
the general theme amongst guidance but there exists significant
disagreements with the exact details. Adding to the uncertainty,
there been significant run to run shifts in the placement and/or
strength of features later next week. Still, overall confidence in
cyclogenesis later next week is increasing as a greater number of
ensembles from the three major global model suites show the
potential for quite a strong low pressure somewhere along the east
coast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update...
Through Friday night...High confidence.
VFR through the period. BKN strato-cu redeveloping during Fri
around 050. Low risk for a spot shower. SW gusts to 25 kt near
the coast diminishing late afternoon and becoming W 5-10 kt
tonight.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: VFR.
Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Friday night...High confidence.
Gusty SW winds will diminish through the afternoon with speeds
dropping below 15 kt tonight and shifting to W, with subsiding seas.
Winds and seas below SCA Friday and Friday night, with W flow Fri
becoming NW Fri night.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: Strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
ANZ231>237-250-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...KJC/KP
MARINE...KJC/FT
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 6:56 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510232256-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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