JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 7:55 AM EDT
262
FXUS63 KJKL 271155 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
755 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The rain chances and unsettled weather linger for much of the
week as two upper level lows affect eastern Kentucky.
- Frost is possible Friday night into Saturday morning, mainly
just in the western valleys.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
along with a touch-up to the near term PoPs per the latest radar
and CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the
NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and
SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky between two main systems:
high pressure to the northeast and on the other side of the
Appalachians while developing low pressure is located to the
southwest over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This is sending ample
into the region with a sfc trough lying through eastern Kentucky.
This has kept cloudy conditions in place this night along with
pockets of light rain and sprinkles. As such, readings are not
exhibiting much of a terrain difference generally running in the
mid to upper 40s north and east and in the low to mid 50s south.
Meanwhile, dewpoints have stayed rather steady for the past 24
hours ranging from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south.
Currently, there are also some light showers and sprinkles
affecting the southwest third of the area. The clouds are keeping
any radiation fog away this night, too.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in
fairly good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a weakening upper low drifting east into
the eastern Tennessee Valley today and tonight with its better
upper support concentrated to the south of Kentucky as it moves
by. This feature will work its way toward the Southeast Coast on
Tuesday while more energy and troughing dives into the Southern
Plains - upstream. This latter feature rapidly consolidates into
a deeper closed low west of the area but steadily pushing east as
part of a full-latitude trough establishing itself through the
eastern half of North America by mid-week. The relatively small
spread among the models still supports using the NBM as the
starting point of the forecast grids with minimal adjustments
needed - mainly to include some of the PoP details from the latest
CAMs consensus guidance through Tuesday.
Sensible weather features a damp start to the week as chilly rain
showers and sprinkles abound - especially in the south where up to
an inch of rain could occur through Tuesday afternoon. The
northern parts of the area will see much less in the way of rain
and as a result stay a bit warmer today - in the low 60s for highs
- than the south where many places do not get out of the low to
mid 50s. Temperatures will be rather uniform tonight in the mid to
upper 40s owing to the overcast conditions and showers lingering
through the night - eventually diminishing from west to east by
dawn, Tuesday. Similarly, Tuesday will be cloudy with some light
showers still in the picture - the more concentrated ones
departing to the east with time. This will allow temperatures to
be more uniform through the area - generally in the mid to upper
50s.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
adding in more details for the PoPs from the latest CAMs
consensus through the period. Given the more moist environment
again did not need to adjust the T or Td grids from the NBM all
that much.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
The main change to the extended forecast this morning were minimal
given the decent agreement among the various models and their
ensemble suites. The fairly moist environment did not leave many
opportunities to improve on the terrain differences for
temperatures or dewpoints. More substantive rainfall will affect
much of eastern Kentucky through the middle parts of the week as a
potentially sub 1000 mb sfc low takes shape and moves off to the
northeast. Will also be tracking the potential for a few novelty
snow flakes to show up in the highest terrain during the latter
part of the extended forecast.
The previous long term discussion follows:
Tuesday, models and ensembles depict a low departing the
Kentucky/Tennessee area, moving towards the Carolinas. Light off and
on showers may result through the day. As this occurs a shortwave
over the Intermountain West digs southeast into a trough over the
Central Plains. This energy strengthens into a strong upper level
low, located over the Mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday morning.
Its precip shield is expected to produce rain over Eastern Kentucky
starting early (pre-dawn) Wednesday morning continuing through the
day. As the lows center continues to dip south and east (over
Western Carolinas), showers continue through Thursday. Later
Thursday the upper level low departs to the Northeast. Quasi-zonal
flow will return to the region but more 500-mb height falls arrive
Saturday, as the next upper level low begins to dip south out of the
Northern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Shower chances will
look to increase again heading into Sunday as the upper level low
approaches the Tennessee/Kentucky area.
Through the extended period, afternoon temperatures will generally
be in the mid to upper 50s. Thursday and Friday will be the coolest
with highs in the lower 50s. This is due to the anticipated rain,
and cold air advection on the back end of the low. Lows will likely
be in the low to mid 40s Tuesday and Wednesday night, and in the mid
to upper 30s Thursday through Sunday night. Frost will be possible
Friday night into Saturday morning. At this time frost is not
expected to be as widespread as the frost earlier this week. The
current plan among surrounding NWS offices is to mark November 1st
as the end of the growing season.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
VFR conditions were noted at TAF issuance, aside from some MVFR
visibility in rain at SME, and should prevail through at least
16Z northeast of the Cumberland Valley - possibly the bulk of the
day north of the Mountain Parkway. This activity should struggle
to advance beyond the Mountain Parkway corridor however due to the
entrenched drier air over the region nearer to the Ohio River.
With that rain, ceilings will also gradually decrease, likely
lowering to MVFR or worse during the day then dropping to LIFR at
night - again mainly south of the Mountain Parkway. Visibility
will fall into the MVFR range as well with any substantial
showers. Meanwhile, winds will be variable and rather weak,
averaging between northeast and east at under 10 kts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 7:55 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510271155-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL-AAA)
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