PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 6:18 PM CDT
702
FXUS63 KPAH 252318
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
618 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances increase early Sunday morning and with the
exception of a brief break Monday afternoon and evening,
continue through Wednesday night.
- Temperatures will be seasonably cool (5-10 degrees) below
normal through Tuesday then dip behind a front on Wednesday to
10-15 degrees below normal then gradually come back to the 60s
by the weekend.
- Drier conditions Thursday through the weekend. Cold but dry
for Halloween.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Sfc high pressure is still in control for today but is slowly
eroding as a weak sfc low approaches from the southwest. The upper
levels feature a closed southern stream low lagging behind a
northern stream trof to the northeast. PoPs start to ramp up closer
to tomorrow morning as the current dry boundary layer is eroded away
by modest WAA and frontogenesis. Cloud cover will keep us seasonably
cool (about 5-10 degrees below normal).
As this upper low passes through and phases back into the flow,
we'll see a brief break on Monday afternoon and evening before the
influence of the next longwave trof is felt. A digging trof
amplifies as it approaches from the west and closes off by Wednesday
morning, pushing a sfc low and front through the area. PoPs start to
ramp back up by Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures are seasonably cool
through Tuesday then take a dip behind the front for Wednesday into
the mid to upper 50s and then steadily climb back into the 60s by
the weekend. We then dry out Thursday into the weekend as the low
pressure system wraps up and moves northeast. Behind the cold front
we could see lows in the 30s Wednesday night through Friday night,
making for a cold but dry Halloween.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Cigs will gradually lower with increasing rain shower potential
from west to east, especially during the 18-24z window. MVFR to
IFR conditions will arrive first at CGI, followed by PAH. At
MVN, EVV, and OWB, dry air will keep showers at bay until very
late in the forecast period, along with VFR cloud bases. Winds
will be stout from the east at 7-12 kts, with gusts up to 15-20
kts at CGI and PAH possible Sunday afternoon.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...DWS
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 6:18 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510252318-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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