JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 2:07 PM EDT
354
FXUS63 KJKL 261807 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
207 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Milder today with isolated showers and scattered sprinkles.
- The next meaningful chances for rain arrive this evening into
the night and linger into the middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 155 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
Hourly grids were updated based on recent radar and satellite
trends and trends in CAMS. This result in a lull in sprinkle
chances for the northeast two thirds of the area for the next
couple of hours before slight chances to chances of showers move
into areas near I-75 in the evening and sprinkle chances increase
further north and east.
UPDATE Issued at 10 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
Some adjustments were made to pops based on recent radar trends.
This led to a bit higher pops in the south over the next couple of
hours with an areal expansion of sprinkles through the day.
However, more substantial chances for rain will hold off until
tonight and Monday and further into the new week.
UPDATE Issued at 720 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
as well as some tweaking to the light PoPs into the afternoon.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure has moved off well to the
northeast of Kentucky. Return flow behind this has brought more
moisture into the area along with some high clouds of varying
thickness. This has made for a much milder night with no threat of
frost but also limited fog. As such, readings are generally in the
mid to upper 40s with some lower 50s noted nearer to Lake
Cumberland. Meanwhile, dewpoints have come up significantly to
the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. There are also some
sprinkles probably falling from the thicker clouds in the south
and these are expected to lift northeast through the rest of the
night and into the morning hours.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict eastern Kentucky in between two negative
anomalies at 5h. The northeast one remains close enough that it's
associated mid level energy will be slipping through the northeast
parts of Kentucky during the first part of the day. Just as this
influence leaves, later in the day, the upstream trough coming
out of the Southern Plains will bring some of its mid level energy
to the JKL CWA later tonight and into Monday. The weakening
trough to the west moves into the state Monday bringing height
falls and some more concentrated energy of its core. The pretty
small spread among the models continues to support using the NBM
as the starting point of the forecast grids with minimal
adjustments needed - mainly to include some of the PoP details
from the CAMs guidance for tonight and Monday.
Sensible weather features a milder morning compared to the past
several thanks to the mid and high level clouds. Despite the
clouds and potential for light rain showers today, temperatures
will be warmer than Saturday most places - similar or cooler in
the south, though. Then, tonight, more substantial showers are
expected as low pressure moves into the area from the west. The
higher PoPs continue for southern parts of the forecast area
through Monday as the sfc low works past to the southeast. To the
north. lower PoPs and warmer conditions can be anticipated to
start the new work week.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
adding in more details for the PoPs from the latest CAMs
consensus, especially tonight and Monday. Given the more moist
environment did not need to adjust the T or Td grids from the NBM
all that much.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 515 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
The main change to the extended forecast this morning was to touch
up any terrain based differences for a ridge to valley split to
the temperatures late in the period. Showers and more substantive
rainfall will affect much of eastern Kentucky through the
beginning and middle parts of the upcoming work week.
The previous long term discussion follows:
The beginning of the long term period starts under split flow, with a
trough in the Northeast, high pressure over the Great Lakes, and a
low over Western Kentucky and Tennessee. Meanwhile, further west, a
high amplitude pattern emerges with a weak ridge over the Great
Basin and Pacific Northwest, while troughing exits over the
Northern Plains.
For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, Showers under mostly
cloudy skies and light easterly winds are expected Monday and
Tuesday, as the low over Western Kentucky and Tennessee will progress
east into the Carolinas through Tuesday. Temperatures will be below
average through the long term, with temperatures reaching the low
60s on Monday, and upper 50s to low 60s on Tuesday. Lows will
generally remain in the mid 40s.
During the day Tuesday, an upper level low descends down the lee side
of a ridge, exiting the Northern Plains and arriving in the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. Models and ensembles have this low sinking
further south and east through Wednesday, With a majority of 500-mb
height anomalies showing lowest heights southeast of Kentucky. This
would allow for rain Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will be backing
from southeast to northwest Wednesday into Thursday. This will lead
to colder air advecting into the area Thursday. Afternoon
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will remain fairly similar in
the low to mid 50s, while lows Wednesday night are expected in the
lower 40s. As colder air filters into the region through Thursday,
850-mb temperatures in model soundings for the Black Mountain area
remain below 0C. While its raining there's a period during the
afternoon where there may be enough moisture in the dendritic growth
zone to eek out some flurries at the surface. Currently chances
remain low (<15% chance) so it was left out of the forecast. Lows
Thursday may dip into the mid to upper 30s, and will hover around
the freezing mark at Black Mountain. Clouds diminish some heading
into Friday as the low that produced rain Wednesday and Thursday
progresses off into the Northeast.
Friday and Saturday should be dry, under southwest winds and partly
cloudy skies. Afternoon temperatures will generally be in the upper
50s, near 60 on Saturday. Low temperatures bottom out in the upper
30s to low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the the
TAF period as high pressure departs and the atmosphere gradually
moistens. Bands of mid and upper level clouds will move across the
region as an upper low and shortwaves/disturbances move in above
eastern Kentucky. Ceilings between 6 and 10 kft agl have been
observed across the region recently with a gradual decrease in
ceilings toward 12Z and some MVFR may spread into areas near or
southwest of LOZ and SME. Some bands of light rain or sprinkles
are anticipated in the southwest to begin the period, with bands
of light rain spreading north and east after that point and
continuing through the end of the period. These should be most
persistent in the more southern locations. Winds will be light,
averaging between northeast and east.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK/GREIF
AVIATION...JP
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 2:07 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510261807-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL-AAC)
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