PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 5:31 AM CDT
998
FXUS63 KPAH 251031
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
531 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain shower chances will begin to increase early Sunday
morning and will continue through Wednesday.
- Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal Sunday through
all of next week.
- Dry and cool conditions are forecast for the latter half of
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Sfc high pressure will remain in control over the Ohio Valley today
with seasonable conditions and tranquil weather. 500 mb energy over
the southern Plains associated with a weak sfc low will approach
the FA early Sunday morning with an increase in moisture. In
the wake of pcpn, most of today is progged to remain dry as the
time heights show a very dry boundary layer persisting into
tonight with ceilings around 7-10 kft. Given that the better
PVA combined with modest WAA and frontogenesis does not arrive
until Sunday, blended NBM PoPs lower with the HREF and added a
sprinkle mention for tonight. Many of the 0z CAMs and the NBM
support very little QPF. The HREF only shows measurable amounts
between a trace to over a tenth inch confined to mainly the
Ozark Foothills where very light rain showers will be possible.
After daybreak Sunday, scattered rain showers will increase in
coverage through the afternoon as the aforementioned sfc low passes
by to the south. A lull in pcpn coverage remains on track for Monday
before a amplified 500 mb shortwave trough moves downstream from the
Rockies, developing into a closed Wednesday while phasing with
another disturbance over the northeast CONUS. Another period of rain
showers is likely Tuesday into Wednesday with total QPF amounts
between 1 to 2 inches. Due to the long duration and PWATs only
maxed out over 1.00 inches, flooding issues are not anticipated.
The increase in cloud cover and pcpn chances will mean much
cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 60s and lows in the
mid 40s to near 50.
Drier conditions return to the FA Wednesday night into Thursday as a
ridge of high pressure builds during the latter half of the week.
Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool by about 5-10 degrees
with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows in the mid to upper
30s. In fact, the 0z ECMWF and CMC are more robust with 850 mb temps
falling below 0C while the GFS is a few degrees warmer. Depending on
how much the pressure gradient weakens, there would be a higher
probability of lows closer to freezing in some spots than what
is currently being progged by the NBM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
VFR conditions will persist across all terminals today. Winds
will be light out of the east with overcast skies around 10 kft
AGL. Clouds gradually thicken overnight with scattered
sprinkles. Very light rain showers may approach KCGI towards
the end of the TAF period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 5:31 AM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510251031-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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