IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 2:10 PM EDT
590
FXUS63 KIWX 231810
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
210 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lake rain showers will diminish tonight, with mainly dry
conditions Friday through this weekend.
- Frost and freeze conditions expected early Friday mainly south of
US 30, and for the entire area early Saturday morning.
- Continued seasonably cool into next week with chances for rain
returning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
Ongoing height rises and gradual influx of drier air on the backside
of cool/moist cyclonic northwest flow will continue to bring a
decrease in shower coverage downwind of Lake MI late this afternoon
into tonight. Lake clouds will likely hang around tonight into
Friday morning however with frost/freeze conditions expected just to
its south. Made no changes to headlines given somewhat low
confidence on how quickly the fringes of the lake plume scatter
out. Much higher confidence in the entire area seeing a solid
freeze/frost event Friday night as low level ridging builds in
with optimal radiation cooling likely ending the growing season
for most.
This weekend into early next week appears mainly dry with seasonable
temps. An incoming north pacific jet will send a broad Four Corners
shortwave east into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, while a
trailing/weak low amplitude impulse drops southeast through the
Great Lakes this weekend, followed by anomalous upper ridging from
Hudson Baby south to the Northern Great Lakes early next week. This
blocking regime should keep the bulk of the moisture and better
rain chances south and southwest of the area by these periods. The
upper level ridging does release east then toward the middle of next
week as northern stream jet energy sends a digging/closing system
this way with the next decent shot for rain.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
Given the trough across the northeastern US, streams of vorticity
run northwest to southeast across Lake MI and that paired with CAA
allows for lake effect clouds and convective rain showers. The
trough slowly jogs eastward and this will push the trough east of
the area Friday morning. Later this afternoon, another area of
pressure gradient vacates Lake MI to the east and this will help the
gusty winds relax as the lapse rates relax. Winds overnight and into
Friday stay around 5 kts. RH values are much drier compared to
yesterday and that allows for more prevalent VFR conditions.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Frost Advisory from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to 9 AM
EDT /8 AM CDT/ Friday for INZ008-009-012-014-017-018-116-
203-216.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
INZ013-015-020-022>027-032>034.
OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
OHZ004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Roller
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 2:10 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510231810-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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