JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 10:19 PM EDT
363
FXUS63 KJKL 260219 CCA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1019 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Milder and mainly dry conditions through midday Sunday.
- The next meaningful chances for rain arrive Sunday evening into
Sunday night and linger into the middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
Forecast remains unchanged late this evening. Sprinkles/patchy
very light rain are waning late this evening as upper level
forcing pulls away. However, additional sprinkles/patchy light
rain are approaching from the southwest with renewed upper level
forcing, thus anticipate this light activity will become more
widespread again during the second half of the night. The
probability for measureable precipitation (at least 0.01 inch) at
a given location is under 25%, given the light nature of the
activity.
UPDATE Issued at 715 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
Light sprinkles continue across portions of the area at update
time, with even a narrow band of light rain between the Mountain
Parkway and I-64. These sprinkles and as well as any patchy light
rain will continue through the evening, though should trend less
widespread overall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 415 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
Late this afternoon, the axis of an upper level ridge extended
from the Gulf into the Southeast to Middle TN to western KY.
Further north, an upper level trough extended from eastern Canada
into portions of the Great Lakes, Northeast, and the mid Atlantic.
A shortwave was passing north of eastern KY at his time with
another working across the western Great lakes. Meanwhile, further
west, a slow moving upper level low was centered near the KS and
OK border region with an associated trough south across TX and
into portions of Mexico. Shortwaves were moving around this upper
low across central and eastern TX and Ozarks vicinity to Lower MS
Valley. At the surface, the axis of a ridge of high pressure
extended from Ontario across the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid
Atlantic states to the Carolinas to eastern Gulf. An inverted
trough extended from a low pressure system centered in the Red
River Valley vicinity and into portions of southern to
southeastern KY. Return moisture is gradually working into the
region, especially at mid and upper levels. Some sprinkles have
been falling from the mid level deck across the region including
recently at JKL and the vicinity as well as a couple of reports
in central KY likely aided by the entrance region of a jet streak
progressing from the southern Great Lakes to Mid Atlantic.
Temperatures varied from north to south with upper 50s to low 60s
from near KSDF to the KJKL to Pike County and mid to upper 60s to
the south where mid clouds have been less persistent.
Tonight and Sunday, following the passage of the shortwave to the
north and northeast of the area and some subtle height falls as
well as the jet streak passing to the north and northeast and
then its location becoming less favorable, some small height
rises are progged occur during for a time this evening into the
early overnight as the upper level ridge briefly builds back
toward the area. However, this will be short-lived as the next
shortwave moves across the western and central Great lakes and
toward the Upper OH Valley and Mid Atlantic. The trend of height
falls will continue during the day on Sunday as the upper low
moves to near the Ozarks vicinity and approaches the Mid MS and
Lower OH Valley. The first shortwave currently moving around this
upper low should reach the Lower OH Valley early on Sunday and
progress across the Commonwealth to end the period. At the same
time, the inverted sfc trough should persist north and northeast
into eastern KY as the sfc low currently in the Plains moves to
the Arklatex region and eventually the lower MS Valley. As the
ridge continues to weaken, moisture will continue to increase,
particularly at mid and upper levels, with more substantial
moisture increases in the lower levels from midday Sunday onward.
With rather dry low levels, sprinkles will be possible from time
to time into this evening and again tonight. There is a
slight/small chance for mensurable rainfall across the northern
half to two-thrids of the area as well from late evening into the
overnight. A bit of a lull in chances for at least measurable rain
are progged in between shortwaves from after sunrise to early
afternoon. Then, with the more substantial moisture increases and
height falls resulting in an increase in forcing ahead of the next
shortwave rain chances will increase from the southwest through
Sunday afternoon to early evening. More substantial chances for
rain or showers arrives during the long term period.
With more moisture in the column and more cloud cover, lows the
next couple of nights will be 10 or more degrees milder than
recent nights with all locations not falling below 39 or 40.
Highs on Sunday should range in the low to mid 60s or not far from
what was observed today.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 414 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
The beginning of the long term period starts under split flow, with a
trough in the Northeast, high pressure over the Great Lakes, and a
low over Western Kentucky and Tennessee. Meanwhile, further west, a
high amplitude pattern emerges with a weak ridge over the Great
Basin and Pacific Northwest, while troughing exits over the
Northern Plains.
For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, Showers under mostly
cloudy skies and light easterly winds are expected Monday and
Tuesday, as the low over Western Kentucky and Tennessee will progress
east into the Carolinas through Tuesday. Temperatures will be below
average through the long term, with temperatures reaching the low
60s on Monday, and upper 50s to low 60s on Tuesday. Lows will
generally remain in the mid 40s.
During the day Tuesday, an upper level low descends down the lee side
of a ridge, exiting the Northern Plains and arriving in the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. Models and ensembles have this low sinking
further south and east through Wednesday, With a majority of 500-mb
height anomalies showing lowest heights southeast of Kentucky. This
would allow for rain Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will be backing
from southeast to northwest Wednesday into Thursday. This will lead
to colder air advecting into the area Thursday. Afternoon
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will remain fairly similar in
the low to mid 50s, while lows Wednesday night are expected in the
lower 40s. As colder air filters into the region through Thursday,
850-mb temperatures in model soundings for the Black Mountain area
remain below 0C. While its raining there's a period during the
afternoon where there may be enough moisture in the dendritic growth
zone to eek out some flurries at the surface. Currently chances
remain low (<15% chance) so it was left out of the forecast. Lows
Thursday may dip into the mid to upper 30s, and will hover around
the freezing mark at Black Mountain. Clouds diminish some heading
into Friday as the low that produced rain Wednesday and Thursday
progresses off into the Northeast.
Friday and Saturday should be dry, under southwest winds and partly
cloudy skies. Afternoon temperatures will generally be in the upper
50s, near 60 on Saturday. Low temperatures bottom out in the upper
30s to low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VFR should prevail through the TAF period as high pressure
departs and the atmosphere gradually moistens up, aloft in the
mid and upper levels first. Bands of mid and upper level clouds
will move across the region as an upper low and additional
disturbances approach. Ceilings between 7 and 12kft agl have been
observed across the region recently and should remain generally
in that range at times through the period. Some bands of light
rain or sprinkles are possible but should have little impact at
the terminals. A better chance of rain will come to the Lake
Cumberland area at the end of the period as the upper low nears.
Winds will be light, averaging between northeast and east.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON/JP
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 10:19 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510260219-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL-CCA)
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