MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 12:40 PM CDT ...New UPDATE, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
904
FXUS64 KMOB 261740
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1240 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
...New UPDATE, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
- Dangerous beach and marine conditions are expected to continue
today. Strong onshore winds will create a High Risk of life-
threatening rip currents, high surf, and hazards to small
craft.
- Risk of strong to severe storms shifts eastward across the western
Florida Panhandle this afternoon. Storms that develop south of
a warm front may pose the risk of becoming strong to severe,
with damaging winds and a few tornadoes being the main threats.
- A much colder airmass moves into the area later this week
bringing the coldest air so far this season. Strong northwest
winds in the wake of the front brings higher seas Wednesday and
Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Vigorous southern stream storm system exiting the southern Plains
maintains an active high level southwest flow over the central Gulf
coast the remainder of the afternoon. An organized area of showers
and embedded storms translates eastward. At the surface, a quasi-
stationary front/warm front was draped over southern MS crossing
across Mobile/Baldwin Co's. Along and south of the warm front, the
environment is more unstable over the coastal waters, where
surface based CAPE is exceeding 1000 J/KG but has shown little to
no northward displacement. Effective Bulk Shear magnitudes 45 to
60 Kts. Best 0-1 km SRH in excess of 150 M2/S2 to support
persistent, rotating updrafts remains anchored north of the
boundary over MS into western AL though is not aligned with the
better instability. Despite this, radar has shown several
northward moving cells primarily over the marine area representing
with couplets of rotation and resulting in a tornado threat.
Organized area of showers and embedded storms translates eastward
through the remainder of the day with severe weather threat
looking to shift to the western FL Panhandle. The severe weather
threat north of the coast appears very limited for now as storms
that lift north off the surface boundary will become increasingly
elevated. Considering recent rainfall, probabilities of night-time
fog development has increased and will add this potential to the
gridded forecasts. Chances of showers and storms linger into
tonight before drier air spreads in on Monday and brings a
reduction in PoPs most areas through the course of the day, save
for the northeast zones where a small PoP may hold going into the
afternoon.
Will monitor tide gauges tonight as levels are currently a hair
above forecast and we are moving into higher tidal cycles tonight.
How high they go will be highly dependent on strength of onshore
flow which looks to begin diminishing as frontal axis closes in.
Drier and cooler conditions move in late Monday into Tuesday as the
upper trough moves east of the area. A much stronger trough develops
over the eastern states during the latter half of the week. This
will send a strong cold front through the area late Tuesday night
into Wednesday with a much cooler airmass moving into the area
following its passage. Only isolated to scattered showers/storms
are expected ahead of this front due to the lack of significant
moisture return.
The change of seasons is upon us. Overnight lows turning crisp by
as we close out the month of October. Coolest highs will be in
the lower to mid 60s inland to mid to upper 60s near the coast
Thursday and Friday before gradually moderating going into the
weekend. Beginning Wednesday night, lows sink into the lower to
mid 40s across much of the area north of the coast where numbers
range 46 to 52. The coldest night will likely be Thursday and
Friday nights with some mid to upper 30s possible inland. /10
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Scattered to numerous shra/tsra will impact approaches and
departures through the afternoon with brief reductions in vsby and
strong wind gusts in and near any tsra. Lowest cigs/vsby at IFR
categories. /10
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
A moderate to strong southeasterly flow through this evening ahead
of a cold front transitions to a light to moderate northerly flow
Monday in the wake of its passage. A stronger cold front makes
passage through the area Tuesday night, bringing a strong
northwesterly flow to the area Wednesday into Thursday and higher
sea states. With the strong northwest fetch setup, the higher seas
look to be in the 20 to 60 NM zones where seas look to range 6 to 9
feet. Winds weaken by Friday with seas rapidly subsiding. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 64 77 56 73 / 70 10 10 0
Pensacola 67 78 60 73 / 90 30 10 0
Destin 66 79 60 73 / 90 40 10 0
Evergreen 59 74 52 71 / 90 40 10 10
Waynesboro 59 73 54 71 / 60 10 0 0
Camden 57 70 52 68 / 90 40 10 0
Crestview 61 77 53 71 / 100 40 10 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
High Surf Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ631-632-
650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 12:40 PM CDT ...New UPDATE, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510261740-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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