BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 2:58 PM EDT
618
FXUS61 KBOX 201858
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
258 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and breezy conditions move in tonight behind the frontal
system, with mild and dry weather Tuesday. Another frontal system
will bring a period of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
followed by cooler and mostly dry conditions for the end of the
week which will last through next weekend as high pressure
builds into the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Scattered showers into this evening in the interior
* Clearing overnight
Heaviest of the frontal band showers have moved to the east but
will take another hour or so for rain to exit east coastal MA
and Cape Cod. Meanwhile scattered showers assocd with the upper
low and cold pool are moving through eastern NY and into
western New Eng. The upper low will be swinging across the
region which will bring scattered showers to mainly the
interior through this evening. The upper low then lifts to the
north overnight with drier air moving in from the SW leading to
clearing skies overnight. SW winds will become somewhat
blustery as low pres lifts to the north, perhaps some gusts to
15-25 mph at times. Lows will drop into the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Dry and mild weather Tuesday
* Another round of showers develops Tue night
Tuesday...
We will be in between systems on Tue as shortwave ridging moves into
New Eng. Dry air and subsidence will result in mostly sunny skies,
with some increase in high clouds later in the afternoon. It will be
a mild day with 925 mb temps near 10C supporting highs in the low-
mid 60s. SW winds will average 10-20 mph with higher gusts
Cape/Islands.
Tuesday night...
Another shortwave rotating around upper low over the Gt Lakes and
the attendant cold front will approach SNE from the SW toward Wed
morning. Modest low level jet will advect PWATs over 1" into the
region. Modest forcing for ascent within the left exit region of the
upper jet acting on this moisture plume will bring another period of
showers late evening through the overnight. Not looking at heavy
rainfall as moisture and forcing not as robust as this morning but
beneficial rains expected with amounts of 0.10-0.50" through 12z
Wed.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Rainy conditions with southerly breezes for Wed AM as a cold front
moves through.
* Cooler and more unsettled for late in the week. Highs only in the
50s.
* High pressure brings dry weather this weekend but with some chilly
nighttime lows.
Details:
Another strong cold front will be moving through Southern New
England during the first half of Wed. Compared to the front which
moved through today, progged winds don't look nearly as strong, nor
is the degree of atmospheric moisture which should also lead to
lesser QPF values. Still, it looks generally cloudy with wetting
rainfall for Wed with highs pre-frontal in the mid 60s before a
gradual cooldown into the afternoon and evening.
Southern New England's weather then becomes governed by broad
cyclonic flow aloft with modest cool advection taking place late in
the week into the weekend. Cooler and a little on the blustery side
for late in the week as low pressure from Wed continues to slowly
lift northward into northern Canada, to go along with partly to at
times mostly cloudy conditions given continued shallow moisture
underneath the mid-level cyclonic flow. A spot shower or two are
possible but should be pretty isolated with the majority of the time
being dry. Highs may only top out in the mid to upper 50s which are
a few degrees cooler than normal. Surface high pressure then builds
in for the weekend, but cyclonic flow and cooler air aloft
continues. Should then see less cloud cover overall for the weekend,
but stronger diurnal cooling at night which could favor some rather
chilly nighttime lows.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update:
Tonight: High Confidence.
VFR. Scattered showers this evening, mainly interior. WSW
winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt at times.
Tuesday: High Confidence.
VFR. SW wind 10-20 kt.
Tuesday night: Moderate confidence.
VFR to start, then lowering to MVFR-IFR overnight as showers
overspread the region.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence.
VFR cigs, then clearing overnight. SW gusts to 20 kt through
tonight and continuing Tue, with some 25 kt gusts possible.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday through Saturday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday Night...High confidence.
Persistent SCA conditions over the waters with W-SW gusts to 25-30
kt and hazardous seas will continue through much of Tue, with
diminishing wind and seas Tue night.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers.
Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ230-236.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237-
254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Loconto
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin
MARINE...KJC/Loconto
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 2:58 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510201858-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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