LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 3:14 AM EDT
449
FXUS63 KLMK 260714
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
314 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Cool and mostly dry today. Light rain showers expected to move in
late tonight and through Monday. Best chances for rain will be
over southern and central Kentucky.
* A low pressure system will move through on Wednesday bringing
another round of showers.
* Halloween continues to trend dry.
* Temperatures will continue to run cooler than normal through the
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Currently, mid-level moisture and vorticity shedding from the
approaching upper-level low has brought very light stratiform precip
northeast into the region. This band of precip is falling into a low-
level dry layer and not allowing much to make it to the surface.
Also, as the band of precip moves northeast, it is moving away from
the best forcing along the LLJ, so it is expected to continue to
dissipate this morning.
The upper-level low will continue to push east into the mid-
Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Simultaneously, upper ridging
will amplify over the Great Lakes. Therefore, helping the surface
high pressure over the northeastern CONUS to also strengthen. This
will help to keep easterly winds and low-level dry air in the region
today. Conditions will remain cloudy, but mostly dry. Wouldn't rule
out a very light drizzle or sprinkle, similar to Saturday.
By the evening, the upper low will be over the Mississippi River.
850mb winds will then begin to usher better moisture into the low
levels. These features will allow light stratiform rain and embedded
showers to push northeast into the lower Ohio Valley late tonight
and through Monday afternoon. Best chances will be over the southern
half of the region.
On Monday, the amplifying upper ridging will begin to weaken the
upper low and precip will steadily subside Monday afternoon and into
the evening. Though overcast skies will remain given troughiness and
continued mid-level moisture in the area.
High temperatures will be 7-10 degrees below normal today and Monday
in the upper 50s and low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Monday night, deepening troughing over the Rockies and New England
will work to pinch off the ridging centered over the Great Lakes and
break up the Omega blocking patten. Conditions will be mostly dry
and cooler than normal on Tuesday.
Going into Wednesday, deep troughing over the Rockies will develop a
closed upper low that will push southeast into the southeastern
CONUS. This will bring deep troughing stretching over the eastern
half of the CONUS and the axis will be situated over the lower Ohio
Valley. At the surface, a low pressure center will develop over the
mid-Mississippi Valley. This will increase chances for showers
Wednesday and Thursday as the low tracks east over the region.
Current QPF forecast for mid week is 0.5-1.5 inches of rainfall.
Halloween and into the weekend, the upper low and associated surface
low will continue to push northeast. High pressure will overspread
the region, which will bring dry conditions and scattered skies.
Temperatures will remain below normal during this time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
A band of very light stratiform rain is working northeast over the
region. This rain is falling from a mid-level deck around 8-12kft,
and with a dry layer near the surface, precip will remain very
light. This mid-level deck will remain through this forecast and
begin to lower tonight. Better low-level moisture will move into the
region tonight, which will help promote scattered showers embedded
in stratiform light rain. Winds will remain out of the east through
the day around 4-8kts.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 3:14 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510260714-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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