JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 4:30 PM EDT
039
FXUS63 KJKL 242030
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
430 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of frost should again develop in valleys and low lying
areas, particularly those along and east of I-75.
- Cool and dry conditions will continue through Saturday.
- The next chances for rain arrives early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 420 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
Late this afternoon, an upper level trough axis extended south
from eastern Canada into the St Lawrence Valley to mid Atlantic
coast to east of the southeast U.S. coast. Further west, the axis
of a narrow upper level ridge extended from the eastern Gulf
across portions of the Southeast to the Lower OH Valley
region/western KY. Further west, an upper level low was located in
southern portions of the Rockies/just east of the Four Corners
region with an associated trough south into Mexico. Downstream of
this upper low/trough, a couple of shortwaves were moving across
portions of the Plains/Central Conus with the first across parts
of the Central Plains to Ozarks vicinity and another further west
over the TX/OK panhandles vicinity into wester parts of TX.
Further north, an upper level low/shortwave was moving from
southeastern Alberta and the eastern Dakotas to the upper MS
Valley. This was all occurring downstream of an upper level ridge
in the eastern Pacific that extended into parts of the Great Basin
to Saskatchewan. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure
extended from western Ontario across the western and Central
Great Lakes to the OH Valley to Southern Appalachians while a sfc
low was evolving over the TX/OK panhandle vicinity with an
associated warm front into parts of OK to eastern TX to LA and a
trailing cold front/frontal zone trailing to southeast NM and into
parts of Mexico. Locally, skies have been clear through the day
with a few cirrus begging to drift into eastern KY from the west.
Dewpoints as of 4 PM were in the low to mid 30s for most locations
with mid and upper 20s above 2000 feet.
Tonight and Saturday, the upper trough axis will continue to shift
east to ME to off the mid Atlantic coast and then further east
Saturday. Meanwhile, the shortwave upper ridge will also shift to
the eastern Gulf to Southeast states to KY. The more northern
upper low and shortwave should progress southeast and reach
southern ONtario to the Central Great Lakes near sunset on
Saturday. Further west, the upper low should meander into the KS
to OK border vicinity with the sfc low tracking into eastern TX.
An inverted sfc trough may also develop west of the crest of the
Appalachians with the sfc ridge axis moving to near James Bay to
the mid Atlantic states to the Carolinas. As the shortwave in
Ontario to the Great Lakes moves further east and passes to the
north and east of eastern KY, height falls are progged especially
from late evening to late Saturday night. At the same time the sfc
system ahead of the slow moving upper low in the Plains/Central
Conus should near the mid to lower MS Valley.
As the sfc high moves east and the troughing in the Central to
Southern Plains progresses east and the northern system moves to
the Great Lakes, moisture will increase first at mid and high
levels mainly after midnight tonight and then continue through
Saturday and into Saturday night. With light winds at the surface,
seasonably dry dewpoints in place and cloud cover not expected to
become all that thick until late tonight or early Saturday, the
stage should be set for another night of frost if not below
freezing lows in some instances for the typical cold spots tonight.
The potential for this is greatest in valleys and low lying areas
generally along and east of I-75. Temperatures moderate into the
60s areawide and toward normals for this time of year for
Saturday. Some sprinkles cannot be completely ruled out in the
afternoon or evening Saturday, but the low levels will be dry with
widespread min rh expected in the 25 to 25 percent range. With
further moisture increase on Saturday night and the sfc low
nearing the mid to Lower MS Valley and in inverted sfc trough
expected to remain and migrate a bit further north, there will be
a small chance for light rain or showers at that point. More
substantial chances for rain will arrive in the long term period.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
The long-term period opens Sunday with quasi-zonal flow over
eastern Kentucky. Just upstream, a high-amplitude split flow
features a weak closed low over the southern Plains under a ridge
extending from the Upper Midwest to northern Canada. To our
northeast, a trough lingers from Labrador down across the St.
Lawrence Valley. Far upstream to our northwest, a potent trough is
coming ashore over the Pacific Northwest coast. At the surface,
an ~1033 mb high is centered over the Ontario/Quebec border,
though its associated ridging extends southward into the
Appalachians and upper Midwest. Meanwhile, a nearly filled surface
low will be situated under the aforementioned upper low, with a
weak triple-point low skirting the Central Gulf Coast.
The guidance is in relatively good synoptic agreement through
Monday morning. The split flow pattern shifts east with the weak
closed low gradually filling over our region on Monday. A surge of
WAA and a modest uptick in PWATs will occur as the remnant upper
low fills, leading to widespread measurable rainfall later Sunday
into Monday. Guidance diverges substantially thereafter; while the
overall pattern is apparent, specifics regarding track, depth,
and local impacts remain uncertain. In general, the Pacific trough
will dive southeast and carve a deep trough through the Plains
before closing off somewhere over the Eastern CONUS. Meanwhile,
the upper trough over the St. Lawrence Valley closes off and
retrogrades southwest, potentially interacting with the
aforementioned closed low. This complex system eventually shifts
east, bringing a cold front through the region and potentially the
first snowflakes of the season to the highest mountains.
Generally below-normal temperatures are expected to persist
through the long-term period. Unsettled weather will return
Sunday, beginning with a few sprinkles before transitioning to
light rain Sunday night into Monday. A lull in precipitation is
possible Monday night into Tuesday before more widespread
measurable rainfall returns for mid-week, followed by drier
conditions. Highs on Sunday are forecast to be in the low to
mid-60s, with highs mainly in the 50s for the remainder of the
period. Overnight lows will also cool, beginning in the 40s Sunday
night before falling into the 30s by late week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
Other than some MVFR to IFR reductions between 06Z and 14Z due to
fog along some of the rivers and largest creeks, gradually
departing high pressure will result in VFR prevailing through the
period. The TAF sites should not be affected by this. Winds will
be light and variable through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-080-084>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...JP
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 4:30 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510242030-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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