LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 9:04 AM EDT
177
FXUS63 KLMK 251304
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
904 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Remaining cool and dry through the first half of the weekend.
* Frost Advisory for the far eastern portion of our CWA along and
east of the I-75 corridor this morning.
* Rain chances increase Sunday night into early next week with
unsettled weather and cool temperatures over the Ohio Valley for
much of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
The frost advisory across the Bluegrass was allowed to expire, as
temperatures have warmed into the low 40s. Will send a new suite of
products now that the advisory has expired.
Issued at 757 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
As the sun rises (predominantly behind clouds) on this Saturday, we
do have some light returns on radar, as expected. While the vast
majority of this precipitation is aloft and is evaporating while
falling through a very dry layer of air in the lowest 10 kft of the
atmosphere, can't rule out that some of this doesn't start making it
to the ground. The main corridor for any light rain showers through
the morning hours will be up along the I-64 corridor, where elevated
H7 relative humidity values and an H85 warm frontal zone are
currently analyzed. Have added a slight chance PoP and increased the
mention of sprinkles to the forecast later today.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
High pressure is situated to the east of the region and will
continue to slowly slide northeast through the weekend. Aloft,
troughing and a closed upper low currently over the central Plains
will push east into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Sunday night.
Vorticity shedding and mid-level moisture is spreading northeast
from the trough and into the lower Ohio Valley. This is resulting in
broken to overcast mid-level clouds streaming in from the west this
morning. These clouds are expected to stick around.
Through the weekend, we will see a stream of vorticity and mid-level
moisture. However, given confluence aloft and dry low-levels, we are
looking at a dry forecast. Wouldn't completely rule out an
incredibly light sprinkle, but any precip should remain as virga.
For high temperatures we are looking at the 60s and low temperatures
in the mid-to-upper 40s and some area in the low 50s.
Current frost headline over our eastern counties continues until 13Z
this morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Upper level ridging will build over the Great Lakes and work to
break down the closed upper low in the mid-Mississippi Valley. As
the upper low weakens, it will continue to push east across southern
Kentucky. At this point, we may see better low-level moisture over
the region to help promote scattered showers. Coverage over southern
Indiana would be more isolated.
Early next week, the closed low will weaken entirely and the upper
pattern then resembles an omega pattern with ridging still centered
over the Great Lakes. Troughing over the northern Plains and
troughing over New England will strengthen and cut off the ridging
to form a closed upper high over southern Canada and closed lows
over the Ohio Valley and the eastern Great Lakes. This very complex
upper pattern leads to much uncertainty beyond this point, though
deterministic guidance and AI guidance is converging on similar
ideas. This idea is that the upper low over the Ohio Valley will
sink south into the Northern Gulf by Thursday and push off to the
east as it is picked up by a shortwave late in the week.
That said, this would bring daily chances for showers Sunday night
through Wednesday. And the remainder of the week would be dry.
Temperatures would likely remain below normal through next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. BKN-OVC clouds
around 10-15kft have blanketed the region and will remain through
this TAF cycle. By mid morning winds will pick up out of the east
around 4-7kts.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 9:04 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510251304-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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