JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 7:35 AM EDT
900
FXUS63 KJKL 241135 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
735 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Freeze Warning is in effect early this morning with widespread
frost.
- Cool and dry conditions will continue through Saturday.
- The next chances for rain arrives early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure building into Kentucky. This
is providing a clear night sky along with light winds and dry air
- excellent conditions for radiational cooling. This brought
about a rather healthy ridge to valley temperature difference. As
such, readings currently range from around 40 degrees on the hills
to the low 30s in the lower, sheltered spots. Meanwhile,
dewpoints are generally in the upper 20s and low 30s. Widespread
frost is expected for much of the area with several hours of sub
freezing temperatures in many of the valleys this morning -
addressed in the ongoing Freeze Warning. There are also signs on
satellite of fog in the river valleys - likely locally dense.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are now in
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict Large and weakening troughing moving off
to the northeast at 5h allowing heights to rebound locally and
any mid level energy to depart the area. Northwest flow will
become more zonal during this transition as western troughing
slowly approaches the Southern Plains and opens up a bit allowing
some of its energy to work east into the weekend in increasingly
zonal mid-level flow. The still small spread among the models
continued to support using the NBM as the starting point of the
forecast grids with minimal adjustments needed - mainly just
terrain driven enhancements to the hourly temperatures at night in
order to better fine tune the frost and freeze depictions in the
weather grids early this morning and on Saturday.
Sensible weather features seasonably cool temperatures during the
day and cold conditions at night. The coldest morning is underway
with widespread frost likely as well as valley spots experiencing
a freeze. A cold start to the day, today, will keep temperatures
lower than on Thursday despite plenty of sunshine and dry air. For
tonight, conditions will not be quite as ideal for radiational
cooling, owing to more high clouds in the south, so that
temperatures don't quite get as cold on Saturday morning compared
to current conditions. Likewise, the milder start will allow for
temperatures to climb to near normal on Saturday as the dry
weather continues, but with more in the way of high clouds
arriving from the west.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
elevation/terrain differences in the temperatures at night along
with some extra drying applied to the dewpoints and RH during the
afternoons. PoPs were kept at near zero through the period - in
line with all guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
The main change to the extended forecast this morning was to once
again enhance the terrain based differences of a ridge to valley
split to the temperatures into Sunday morning and then late in the
period. The next decent shot of showers will be through the first
part of the new week with even a small chance for some light
activity on Sunday and Sunday night.
The previous long term discussion follows:
The long-term period opens Saturday with quasi-zonal flow over
the Ohio Valley. A split-flow pattern over the central CONUS
features a narrow ridge extending from the Desert Southwest into
far northern Nunavut, with a weak closed low situated underneath
it over the Texas Panhandle. This is mirrored at the surface by an
expansive area of high pressure centered over the Central
Appalachians to Great Lakes and a weak surface low over Central
Texas.
The models are in relatively good agreement through Monday
morning. The split flow shifts east, with the weak closed low
gradually filling as it passes over the Mississippi Valley. High
pressure holds firm over most of eastern North America, though its
center does retreat into Quebec. The surface low drifts
northeast, occludes, and fills while a subtle triple-point low
skirts along the Gulf Coast. A surge of WAA and a modest uptick in
PWATs are expected as the remnant upper low moves into the
Commonwealth on Monday, even without a notable surface feature.
This will bring our next opportunity for widespread measurable
rainfall. Guidance diverges sharply heading into the second half
of the long term. A new upper-level trough is forecast to dive
southeast, carving out a deep trough over the eastern CONUS, but
specifics regarding its track, depth, and local impacts remain
uncertain. However, a wetter and colder pattern is favored, as a
potent cold front is expected to pass through the area with a
subsequent coastal storm developing along the Atlantic Seaboard.
The first snowflakes of the season may even be possible on the
highest mountaintops by Halloween.
Generally below-normal temperatures are expected to persist
through the long-term period. Dry weather will continue Saturday
and Saturday night, albeit with increasing high clouds. This will
be followed by more unsettled conditions, with daily rain chances
from late Sunday onward. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday
are forecast to be in the lower to mid-60s, with overnight lows in
the mid-30s to mid-40s. For next week, highs are expected mainly
in the 50s, though potentially cooling to near 50F or cooler by
Thursday. Nighttime forecast lows range in the 30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
Aside from some dense fog at SME, VFR conditions are prevailing
across all TAF sites and will persist through the entire TAF
window. Look for the fog and low clouds at SME to break up by 14Z.
In addition, winds will be light and variable through the
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 7:35 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510241135-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL-AAA)
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