IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 3:22 AM EDT
298
FXUS63 KIWX 210722
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
322 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lake enhanced showers especially north of the Michigan line
may be briefly heavy.
- Wind gusts 25 to 35 mph at times Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds
will be stronger near Lake Michigan.
- Very cold Thursday night and Friday night with frost likely.
Freezing temperatures are possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
An upper low with anomalously chilly air will bring showers and
unseasonably cold air to the area through the rest of the week.
Frost and freezing temperatures are likely at times from
Wednesday night through the end of the week. At this time, the
coldest nights include Thursday night and Friday night when
frost is likely and freezing temperatures are possible. At the
moment, headlines are not planned; however, they will likely be
added during subsequent shifts. This will a more prolonged
event with highs only in the 50s expected from Wednesday through
Saturday. The GFS 850 mb anomaly is a little farther south than
the 20/00Z run. Otherwise, thermal fields have been consistent
favoring high confidence in this cold event occurring. Otherwise,
temperatures should warm a little above normal early next week
with highs 60 to 65. Other then the lake showers, the very dry
pattern will continue. It does not appear at this time there
will be enough rain to improve the extreme drought that has
developed over northern Indiana and northwest Ohio (see the
October 16 U.S. Drought Monitor).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of this TAF
period as a fast moving disturbance will continue to swing
through the area overnight with periods of light rain showers.
A period of LLWS along and ahead of the frontal passage,
especially for KFWA. A tight gradient then sets up today with
an increase in wind gusts to 25-30 kts. Also, another
disturbance brings another bout of rain showers during the
afternoon. Did add mention for a chance of thundershowers for
KSBN from 17z through about 20z Tue, still not overly convinced
but certainly possible with the instability with the cold air
advection.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-
046.
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Andersen
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 3:22 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510210722-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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