LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 3:11 AM EDT
262
FXUS63 KLMK 230711
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
311 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Cool and dry weather is expected through Saturday.
* Frost Advisory in effect mainly for rural and sheltered areas in
southern Indiana and much of central Kentucky early this morning.
* Freeze Warning has been issued for southern Indiana and most of
central Kentucky for early Friday morning. Widespread frost is
also more likely Friday morning, with lows ranging from the upper
20s to mid 30s. Frost Advisory now in effect for southern KY for
Friday morning as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
Quiet weather in the short term as surface high pressure builds into
the area beneath unremarkable NW flow aloft. The main focus for this
period will be the cold temperatures each morning prompting the
ongoing Frost Advisory this morning, and then and upgrade to a
Freeze Warning for much of the CWA for Friday AM. Areas not upgraded
to a Freeze Warning will be in a Frost Advisory for that same time
period Friday AM. Could be a little confusing for a few hours this
morning with some counties in an Advisory now, but in a Freeze
Warning for tomorrow, so be sure to pay close attention to your
particular area for each morning.
Outside of that, not much to speak of in the short term.
Temperatures this afternoon will climb out of the cellar and into
the upper 50s and low 60s for most. Some mid to upper 60s look more
likely for the southern CWA. Winds won't be as gusty as the last two
afternoons, however a few gusts up around 15 to 20 mph will likely
occur. Quiet conditions continue into tonight with more widespread
frost, and freeze potential taking hold. Hard to tell if this will
be a killing frost/freeze just yet, but we will have coordination
with ag partners once the mercury rises on Friday. Likely won't end
the growing season for our SW CWA, if anywhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
Friday - Saturday Night...
After our cold start to Friday morning, temperatures will try to
recover under mostly sunny skies. There will be some upper sky cover
that may limit heating by a degree or two, however the real limiting
factor will be H85 temps in 3 to 8 C range over the area. The end
result will be lows in the low to mid 60s across the area, a bit
below normal for this time of year. Surface high pressure will be
shifting east by Friday night/Saturday AM, however we'll likely
still see good enough radiational cooling conditions across our NE
CWA to support another round of frost. Will continue to mention this
in the grids, but no need to headline just yet outside of including
frost mention in grids.
Saturday looks dry with upper ridging starting to build over the
area. Temps will be similar to Friday in the 60s. Saturday night
looks mostly dry across the much of the data set, however a few
models do have some light QPF developing Saturday night. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, this would be associated with
the weak mid level frontogenesis and moisture return ahead of a
trough axis just to our north. Have some low pops in to account for
this potential, but overall pretty dry below H7 so not overly
confident.
Sunday - Wednesday...
A Rex Block briefly develops over the east central CONUS on Sunday
with the southern cutoff low meandering near or over our area later
Sunday/Sunday night. This will likely bring some shower chances to
our area for that time, and will also mark the beginning of an
overall wetter and somewhat dingy stretch of sensible weather
heading into early to mid next week. Look for highs generally in the
50/60s each day with smaller diurnal ranges at night due to
cloud cover. Lows will generally be in the 40s. Will carry
shower chances every day as a complex upper pattern steadily
evolves into an anomalous closed low over the entire eastern
CONUS. The exact evolution of this feature is in question as
several shortwaves and TS Melissa all interact with it at some
point through early to mid week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming forecast period.
Winds should remain light out of the west to west-southwest tonight.
Winds will shift to the northwest and increase to 6-10kts later this
morning into the afternoon with a few mid and upper clouds at times
through tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-064>067-077-078-081-
082.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Friday for KYZ024-025-027>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-077-
078-081-082.
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for KYZ023-026-061-
062-070>076.
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
Friday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 3:11 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510230711-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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