IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 12:32 PM EDT
480
FXUS63 KIWX 191632
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1232 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain tapers off from west to east late this afternoon into
early this evening.
- Turning much colder during the middle of this week with frost
likely and freezing temperatures possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
A large area of rain was spreading north into northern Indiana. The
heaviest rain from this area is expected to fall east of where the
heaviest rain fell earlier last night. Rainfall amounts of more than
an inch in less then an hour will likely bring the potential for some
brief, localized urban flooding today.
An upper level trof was beginning to become negatively tilted from
the Upper Midwest to west of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Mid level
winds on the back side of the upper level trof were expected to
become very strong near the base of the trof with GFS forecast
wind speed overs 110 kts. A strong cold front associated with
this system will move east across the area today and bring
gusty winds. Current thinking is winds will stay below advisory
criteria with the stronger sustained winds from 20 to 30 mph
with some gusts reaching 40 mph, especially near Lake Michigan.
After a brief respite from the windy conditions Monday, wind
gusts from 25 to 35 mph are likely again Tuesday afternoon with
the passage of another cold front. The air behind this system
will be the coldest so far this fall season. Early morning lows
by Friday morning are expected to be in the lower 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
Deformation rain and gusty northwest winds will pivot east
through northern IN this afternoon, exiting KSBN around 21z and
KFWA around 23/00z. Flight conditions will generally however in
low MVFR, though a period of IFR to start will remain possible.
Ridging then builds in tonight with clearing skies and lighter
west winds.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 12:32 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510191632-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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