MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 6:20 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...
127
FXUS64 KMOB 181120
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
620 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025
- A line of thunderstorms will push through the area late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Strong to severe
storm development is possible.
- A High Risk of rip currents is expected through Sunday.
Before heading to beach, check the local conditions and follow
the posted beach warning flags.
- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the 20-60 nm portion of
the marine area Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025
A large and initially broad upper trof over the central CONUS
amplifies substantially and takes on a negative tilt while
progressing into the eastern states through Sunday morning. This
system is expected to bring a region of strong deep layer lift
quickly across the forecast area late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning which will likely manifest as a line of active
convection, with a cold front moving through immediately
thereafter. An impressive return of deep layer moisture is still
anticipated ahead of this event, with precipitable water values
increasing to around 2 inches prior to the frontal passage. MLCAPE
values of 500-1500 J/kg look plausible as the line advances
across the western half of the area and moves to about the I-65
corridor. Past this point is where the nocturnal timing starts to
take a toll with instability diminishing significantly over
interior areas (south central Alabama) while closer to the coast
MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg may still be realized before the
line exits to the east. Plenty of favorable shear will be present,
and considering the overall environment anticipate damaging wind
gusts as the main threat with a few tornadic cells potentially
embedded in the line.
Have trended higher with rain chances for this event, and gone
with mostly categorical pops for Saturday night and also for the
eastern portion of the area Sunday morning as the line moves
through. Predominately dry conditions follow for Sunday afternoon
except for a small chance of rain over a portion of south central
Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. The remainder of the
forecast through Friday will be dry with a reinforcing cold front
moving through on Tuesday. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid to
upper 80s then trend to the mid to upper 70s for Monday. Tuesday
will be in the lower to mid 80s, then highs drop back to the mid
to upper 70s for Wednesday before trending to the lower 80s by
Friday. Lows Saturday night range from the mid 60s well inland to
around 70 at the coast, then Sunday night will be much cooler and
range from the mid 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast.
Other than a bit warmer temperatures Tuesday night, similarly cool
nighttime temperatures are expected through Thursday night. A
High Risk of rip currents is now in effect through Sunday. A
moderate risk of rip currents is in effect Sunday night, then a
low risk follows for Monday through Wednesday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025
VFR conditions will persist throughout the day today with a steady
southerly wind around 10 knots gusting to 15 knots. Ceilings will
steady lower through the afternoon and into the evening as a front
approaches from the northwest. Scattered showers will likely
develop mainly west of I-65 around midnight before a stronger
line of storms moves across the area late tonight into Sunday
morning. MVFR to IFR conditions will likely accompany the line of
storms. A strong to severe storm with damaging winds could be
possible as storms move from west to east across the area. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025
Light to moderate southeasterly winds increase on Saturday, with a
moderate to strong southerly flow expected Saturday night. Small
craft should exercise caution over much of the marine area
Saturday afternoon. For Saturday night into early Sunday morning,
small craft should exercise caution for the bays and near shore
waters, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the 20-60 nm
portion. Winds switch to the northwest on Sunday as a cold front
moves through. Moderate to strong northeasterly winds Sunday night
diminish on Monday. Another Small Craft Advisory may become
necessary for the open Gulf waters mainly during Sunday night. A
light to moderate offshore flow prevails for Tuesday and
Wednesday. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 84 69 83 50 / 10 80 40 0
Pensacola 83 72 84 56 / 10 80 80 0
Destin 82 71 84 58 / 10 60 90 0
Evergreen 88 66 83 46 / 0 80 60 0
Waynesboro 87 65 78 45 / 10 80 20 0
Camden 88 64 80 46 / 0 80 50 0
Crestview 85 67 83 49 / 10 60 80 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday
for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 6:20 AM CDT ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510181120-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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