LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 6:32 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...
247
FXUS64 KLIX 131132
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
632 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 627 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
- Drier conditions are here for the next couple days.
- Temperatures return to 5-7 degrees above average by mid-week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Heading into the start of our work week we will warm a couple
degrees thanks to a ridge building in from the west. This ridge
will slowly progress eastward, becoming more centered over our
area on Tuesday. This will bring yet another degree or two
temperature increase for afternoon high temperatures on Tuesday.
While we may warm up a touch, the dry air that filtered in over
the weekend is here to stay for the next couple days which will
help keep a more pleasant feel outdoors in the afternoons. Our
upper level high pressure and this dry air lead to no rain chances
in sight for the short term forecast period.
Kept edits in for the early morning low temperatures as we saw
much cooler temperatures Sunday morning than the NBM had. This
brings Monday morning lows into the low to mid 50s for many.
Additionally, similar to previous days blended in the NBM10 for
afternoon dew points.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Heading into the long term period, the upper level high will be
pretty centered over the state on Wednesday. We will gradually
start to see this high break up heading into late week as an upper
level trough gradually pushes eastward from the west coast. The
high breaking down allows rain chances to begin to creep back in
heading into the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday showing PoPs up
into the 25-35% range after all week seeing ~0%.
In terms of temperatures, by Wednesday we will be back up to ~5-7
degrees above climate normals for this time of year. Looking at
the CPC outlooks for temperature does not give any good news for
the future of temperatures either. We will keep cooler mornings
Wednesday and Thursday, but those low temperatures will also jump
back into the upper 60s to lower 70s by late week as well.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
All forecast terminals were VFR at forecast issuance time, and are
likely to remain that way through the forecast period. There have
been a few non-TAF airports that have reported brief fog this
morning, but those appear to be very isolated in scope. Traffic
and other webcams aren't showing any fog to support anything more
widespread. No change in the airmass expected for tomorrow
morning, and don't anticipate threat to increase.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Northerly offshore flow will persist today through early/mid-week
thanks to high pressure over the eastern US and a developing low
off the Carolina coast. This will keep conditions benign with
light waves/seas and winds, as well as dry conditions. East to
east- southeast flow does pick up some mid/late week, ranging 10
to 15 knots but will remain low impact and mainly dry into next
weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 84 57 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 86 58 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 85 53 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 85 64 87 67 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 85 58 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 86 53 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...HL
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 6:32 AM CDT ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510131132-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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