LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 8:57 PM EDT
917
FXUS63 KLMK 210057
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
857 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Drier and cooler weather is expected for much of the upcoming
week.
* Another cold front will bring a small chance for a shower late
tonight into Tuesday morning. Breezy west winds are expected
Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Widespread frost looks increasingly likely Thursday morning and
Friday morning.
* Unsettled weather is likely to return by the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Under clear skies and light southerly winds, we are beginning to see
a stout difference between valley (wind-protected) areas and exposed
areas. Valley areas have quickly decoupled and fallen into the mid
40s. Exposed areas remain in the mid 50s. Due to this difference,
have adjusted temperatures to account for the ridge/valley split.
Otherwise, the cold front is currently over central Illinois and
continues to push southeast. Scattered to broken skies will move
through as the front passes, and there is a very small chance for
sprinkles. As the LLJ moves over the region, this might help to
enhance sprinkles or light rain. Will continue with the previous
forecast of low end PoPs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Ridging at the sfc and aloft is yielding fair weather today, with a
dry column and sunny skies. Temperatures are warming into the
mid/upper 60s this afternoon, and some low 70s look likely SW of I-
165. Southerly winds have increased to 10-15 mph this afternoon as
sfc high pressure slides east across GA/SC. In addition, low
pressure is developing east across MN, with a cold front cutting
south through IA, MO, and KS.
Tonight, upper level troughing is forecast to descend southeast over
the Upper Midwest. The sfc cold front will push into the Lower OH
Valley, reaching the I-65 corridor around 12Z Tue. SW flow aloft
increases sharply in response to a tightening height gradient, with
a 50 kt SW LLJ forecast to overspread the region. With southerly sfc
winds remaining elevated overnight, temperatures will be milder with
lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Moisture return remains scant tonight despite the robust LLJ. PW
values only increase to a narrow plume of 0.8-1.0 inches just ahead
of the front. The moisture is confined to a narrow ribbon between 6-
10 kft, which may just enough for a few brief showers or sprinkles.
However, the front will pass through dry in many locations. We will
see a band of mid-level clouds pass west to east over the region
between 1-9 AM.
Clouds then scatter out, with steepening low-level lapse rates
heading into Tue afternoon in a cold air advection regime. Partly
sunny conditions are expected across southern IN and north-central
KY with high-based cu. Westerly winds will increase to 15-20 mph by
Tue afternoon, with gusts of 25-35 mph. Temperatures are forecast to
rebound into the mid 60s to around 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Tuesday Night through Thursday Night...
Cooler air will continue to stream into the region Tuesday night,
but westerly winds will stay up and prevent temperatures from
dropping too much. And we may still have some lingering clouds
across southern IN and northern KY. Mostly clear skies are more
likely in central KY. Lows will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Low pressure continues to spin east over the Great Lakes on
Wednesday. Breezy westerly winds will persist, which will make for a
chilly day with afternoon highs only in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Mid 60s will be confined to southern KY. A ridge of high pressure
nosing into the region will allow sfc winds to gradually diminish
Wednesday night. This will set the stage for a chilly night, with
Thursday morning lows expected to reach the mid 30s to around 40
degrees. Portions of southern IN and the northern half of central KY
could see areas of frost.
Sfc high pressure is in place over the region on Thursday before
sliding off to the east Thursday night. Sunny skies are expected for
Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 60s. After sunset, expect
temps to tumble with a decoupled BL. Lows Friday morning of low to
mid 30s will be more common, which should result in more widespread
frost.
Friday through Next Weekend...
The majority of medium range ensemble members continue to point to a
dry Friday. A southern stream wave is forecast to move out over the
southern Plains. We'll see increasing southerly moisture advection
into the region Friday night into the weekend as this wave continues
to move eastward. LREF guidance suggests PW values increase above 1
inch on Saturday. Expect more clouds over the weekend with
occasional shower chances, though confidence in more precise timing
for rain showers is low. These showers do look relatively light in
nature overall, with a very low risk for flooding or severe weather.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
As the sun is currently setting, winds are relaxing and will remain
steady out of the S/SSW for the next several hours. A cold front is
approaching the region from the northwest. Ahead of the front, a LLJ
will bring 44-48kts of LLWS over the region. This could also produce
some surface wind gusts, though confidence is low given nocturnal
inversion. Along the cold front, BKN clouds around 6-8kft will move
through. Behind the front, we will see a wind shift to the west.
Thin sky cover will likely stick around through the afternoon over
the northern terminals. Winds will gust up to 25kts in the
afternoon on Tuesday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...SRW
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 8:57 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510210057-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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