MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 7:16 PM CDT ...New Aviation...
786
FXUS64 KMOB 140016
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
716 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
An upper ridge will build over our region from the west through
midweek. A large upper trough over the western U.S. will shift
eastward the latter half of the week and over the weekend, with an
associated surface low pressure area lifting north across the
northern Plains into south-central Canada. The 12z Run of the GFS
has the axis of this trough crossing over the Mississippi River
Saturday night. The ECMWF timing is starting to become better
align with the GFS, but still lags behind by about 12 hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will return for the weekend, with the
highest rain chances (40-50%) likely occurring Saturday night
through noon Sunday, and then taper off from west to east through
Sunday night. At this time, we are anticipating around one-half to
one inch of widespread rainfall with this system.
Until then, it remains a temperature and low afternoon relative
humidity forecast into midweek with dry weather conditions
persisting through Friday night. High temperatures will range from
85-90 degrees (around 6-11 degrees above normal) through Thursday
before cooling slightly into the middle 80s on Friday and the
lower to middle 80s over the weekend due to increasing cloud cover
and rain chances. Low temperatures tonight will be near normal,
with middle 50s inland and the upper 50s to lower 60s along the
immediate coast. Lows will trend warmer throughout the week, and
should be 2-7 degrees above normal Wednesday night, and a whopping
12-17 degrees above normal Saturday night (middle to upper 60s
inland and around 70 degrees along the immediate coast) due to a
good fetch of southerly winds.
Beach Forecast: The LOW rip current risk persist through Thursday
night. Increasing low level southeasterly flow across the region
will help increase the rip current risk by the weekend across our
local beaches, with a Moderate risk returning by Friday and
potentially a High risk of rip currents this weekend. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
VFR conditions will persist throughout the forecast with a light
northerly wind increasing to around 10 knots during the day. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
A light offshore flow will prevail through Thursday morning, with
the exception of a brief onshore flow Wednesday afternoon into
early evening associated with the diurnal cycle. A light easterly
to southeasterly flow will return Thursday afternoon, with winds
gradually increasing late in the week along with building seas.
/22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 58 86 59 86 59 86 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 62 86 64 85 64 84 66 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 65 85 65 84 65 84 67 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 54 89 55 90 56 90 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 54 86 56 86 56 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 54 87 54 87 56 88 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 53 88 55 87 55 87 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 7:16 PM CDT ...New Aviation... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510140016-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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