LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 8:47 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...
444
FXUS64 KLIX 070147
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
847 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 838 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
- Areas of dense fog possible overnight in areas that
received heavy rain in the last 24 hours.
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue
through the short term.
- Dry conditions expected beyond midweek.
- Hazardous marine conditions develop later this week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Have opted to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for a large portion of
the area overnight. It's not a slam dunk event, but with a large
area of heavy rain last night, little in the way of clouds, and
light winds, elements are in place for fog development. A
significant amount of model guidance also pinging on low
visibilities. Won't rule out the need to add additional
counties/parishes later in the evening. Will send updated ZFP
shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
A band of heavy rain/storms has developed along and just west of
the I55 corridor this morning. Low level wind shear increased just
enough with LLJ increasing beyond what guidance had suggested
going into the morning, which caused a few updrafts to rotate.
Additionally, training of this band of broken cells have caused
extremely heavy rainfall rates/totals leaving some roads
impassable in Livingston, St Helena, and Tangi Parishes at the
time of this discussion. The LLJ is breaking down and any severe
weather potential will be minimized going into the afternoon and
evening. CAMs also have this band of convection lifting northward
as the surface trough continues to lift north out of the forecast
area. Behind the trough, still isolated to scattered convection
will be possible through the evening. That said, if a band or two
of showers and storms develop over those areas that received the
heaviest rainfall this morning get additional even isolated to
scattered convection, additional hydro threat will continue.
Going further into the short term into tonight and Tuesday, a
modest H5 ridge will spread westward into the region. This will
help set up a drying trend at least from an overall mean QPF
perspective, however, there still remains at least some QPF signal
across the region through the short term period. As the rain
chances drop slightly toward the end of the short term, expect
temperatures to rebound with some areas near the Atchafalaya
reaching the 90 degree mark on Tuesday. As for the ongoing coastal
flood potential, as tides continue to lower and the stronger
easterly flow relaxes, think the overall threat will continue to
drop with each high tide cycle. The only other entity to mention
is overnight tonight with the wet grounds, some lower visibilities
will be possible for those areas. Will need to pay closer to this
potential as locally dense fog certainly isn't out of the realm of
possibility for the Tuesday commute. In fact, the latest SREF
guidance has most areas in the Florida Parishes with a high prob
of 1SM fog around sunrise. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Going into the long term the overall temperatures remain somewhat
above average for early to mid October. Overall, moisture quality
will start to decrease, especially as a weak cold front moves
southward Wednesday and into Thursday before stalling across the
northern Gulf. Ahead of the front lower-end POPs will continue
through Wednesday before any rain chances shift offshore with the
surface feature late in the week. Perhaps lower Plaquemines will
keep rain chances, but that will be only landbased zones with any
type of rain potential. Behind the front dry northwesterly flow
sets up aloft, which will keep the mid and upper level quite dry.
With a broad scale trough settling over the eastern US, late week
looks to be somewhat average or a bit cooler than what we're
seeing early this week with some locations nearing or exceeding 90
degrees at times. As for the overnight, lows along and north of
I10 may drop down to around 60 if not the upper 50s again as dry
northwest flow and lower heights and humidity values all work to
provide a very comfortable overnight temperature...at least away
from warmer water bodies. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
All forecast terminals were VFR at issuance time. If there is
going to be precipitation at a terminal tonight, it will be at
KBTR, where there are currently isolated SHRA to the northwest of
the terminal area. Will carry VCSH there for a few hours. The main
question overnight will be the potential for fog development.
Considering the amount of rain that has fallen in the last 24
hours, the potential for light winds and lack of cloud cover,
tonight seems as good a night for development as any we've had
recently. Will carry IFR or lower conditions from about 10z to 14z
at KBTR/KMCB/KHDC/KASD. As things heat up in the morning, likely
to be a period of MVFR ceilings as cumulus field develops.
Greatest threat for TSRA tomorrow afternoon will be at KGPT. As
areal coverage is expected to be scattered at best, will use
PROB30 for now.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
High pressure will start to become more dominant over the waters
early this week, allowing easterly to southeasterly winds to relax a
bit to between 10 and 15 knots. Seas will also decrease to 2 to 4
feet as the fetch relaxes. This brief respite in rougher conditions
will end on Wednesday as another low in the Gulf develops and
gradually pushes to the west. Northeasterly winds will increase back
to near advisory levels in the offshore waters and seas will
increase to 4 to 6 feet from Wednesday through Friday and perhaps
beyond. As for tidal lakes and nearshore waters, cautionary
headlines are likely, but cannot rule out the need for Small Craft
Advisories even in a general weaker offshore flow regime. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 87 69 85 / 20 20 10 20
BTR 71 89 71 89 / 20 10 10 10
ASD 70 86 69 88 / 20 20 10 20
MSY 75 88 74 90 / 10 20 10 20
GPT 73 85 71 88 / 30 30 10 20
PQL 70 85 69 88 / 30 50 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>058-071-076-079>086.
GM...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-
077.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...RDF
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 8:47 PM CDT ...New UPDATE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510070147-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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