CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 1:45 AM EDT
945
FXUS61 KCLE 060545
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
145 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure drifts east through Monday as a cold front moves into
the Great Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday. The front will
glide east across the local area on Tuesday before another area of
high pressure builds across the Great Lakes region Wednesday and
Thursday. Another cold front will move east across the Great Lakes
region Friday into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure will exit to the east through the near term as an
upper level trough approaches the Great Lakes region from the west.
Prolonged dry period will end as a surface cold front approaches the
local area Monday night. Showers begin to push into the region ahead
of the front Monday night though most of the precipitation will
occur with the frontal passage on Tuesday, more on that in the short
term discussion below.
Above normal temperatures are expected to persist ahead of the
passage of a surface cold front. Overnight lows tonight will settle
in the low to mid 50s east of I-71 and mid to upper 50s west of I-
71. High temperatures Monday afternoon will rise into the low to mid
80s areawide. Mostly cloudy skies on Monday night will allow for
warm overnight lows to settle in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned surface cold front will glide east across the
local area during the day on Tuesday. Showers will primarily remain
focused along the surface boundary. Can't rule out some isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoon where better upper level support
exists and MLCAPE increases to 500-750 J/kg. Overall rainfall
amounts will generally range between 0.50-0.75 inches, with locally
higher amounts 0.75-1.00 inches possible along the lakeshore from
Cleveland east. Any lingering showers will exit the region to the
southeast as Canadian high pressure establishes itself across the
Great Lakes region.
Slightly cooler on Tuesday with highs rising into the lower 70s,
still a few degrees above normal for early October. Much cooler
airmass in place behind the cold front and as the Canadian high
enters the region. Both of these features will allow for below
normal highs in the lower 60s by Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night
settle in the mid to upper 40s before dropping into the mid to upper
30s Wednesday night. Confidence in frost is increasing Wednesday
night with DESI NBM probabilities of a minimum temperature below 36
degrees increasing to 60-80% across portions of inland Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania with locally higher probabilities
across typical cool spots in eastern Erie and Crawford Counties in
Pennsylvania.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Canadian high will largely remain in place through much of the long
term period. A weak cold front is progged to push east across the
area Friday into Saturday. Precipitation chances with this front
remain minimal (less than 20%) and confined to typical Snowbelt
locations on Saturday. Highs remain a few degrees below normal
Thursday before highs return to near normal values in the upper 60s
Friday into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Widespread VFR conditions will continue across the area for much
of this TAF period as high pressure centered just off the East
Coast remains the primary driving force of weather. Upstream of
the area, a cold front will begin to approach the area,
gradually spreading a scattered cloud deck of 5-8kft this
afternoon into the evening. As the cold front moves closer to
the area near the end of this TAF period, showers will begins to
spread east warranting a PROB30 mention of showers at all
terminals except KCAK, KYNG, and KERI. Given the diurnally
unfavorable environment, the chance of thunder is very low so
opted to not include any thunder mention in the TAFs. Some of
the heaviest showers may reduce conditions to MVFR visibilities,
but expect worsening conditions to occur after this TAF period.
Winds through the period will remain out of the southwest at
5-10 knots. A lake breeze is expected to impact KERI this
afternoon with a northwest flow of 5-10 knots expected.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms with a
cold front late Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly winds at 5-10 knots will continue through the late Monday
before turning more southwesterly and increasing to 10-15 knots
ahead of a cold front passage on Tuesday. Wave heights will be less
than 2 feet through that period. After frontal passage late on
Tuesday, winds will shift to be north to northwesterly and increase
to 15-25 knots with waves building to 3-6 feet, mainly in the
central basin. Winds will decrease to 10-15 knots throughout the day
on Wednesday and begin to shift to be more easterly with waves being
1-3 feet as high pressure builds in north of the region to end the
week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...04
MARINE...23
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 1:45 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202510060545-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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